New York Jets vs. Cleveland Browns NFL Week 5 Analytics Preview

Welcome to another week of NFL football. Now let’s get to who the data favors between the New York Jets and Cleveland Browns based on analytics.

And if you are new to the site, a glossary of terms are here.

Overall Basic Data Favors: New York Jets

Overall Completion Data Favors: New York Jets Defense

Overall Completion Percentage Data Favors: New York Jets Offense

Rushing First-Down Conversion Rate Data Favors: New York Jets Defense

Rushing First-Down Conversion Rate Data Favors: Cleveland Browns Defense

Passing First-Down Conversion Rate Data Favors: New York Jets Defense

Passing First-Down Conversion Rate Data Favors: New York Jets Offense

Sack Rate Data Favors: New York Jets Defense heavily on 2nd Down

Sack Rate Data Favors: Cleveland Browns Defense

Interception Rate Data Favors: New York Jets Defense

Interception Rate Data Favors: New York Jets Offense, except for 3rd Down disparity

Overall Impressions: Unless the Cleveland Browns drastically improve their offense and defense, it’s a clear Jet victory. There is plenty of blame to go around for the Browns’ offense, but you can not continue to play this way and expect to win football games. The advice I’d give is to lean on the parts of the offense that work the best in creating first-downs in the run game. The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again expecting different results. If the Browns think airing it out will lead to victories, then the sacks and interceptions will continue to beat this team’s chances for any type of victory for the foreseeable future. 

 

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San Francisco 49ers vs. Indianapolis Colts NFL Week 5 Analytics Preview

Welcome to NFL Week 5. Now let’s get to who the data favors in the San Francisco 49ers vs. Indianapolis Colts matchup.

And if you are new to my work a glossary of terms can be found here.

Overall NFL Data Favors: Colts due to defensive strengths.

Overall Completion Data Favors: Colts Offense 

Overall Completion Data Favors: 49ers Defense. 

Overall Rushing First-Down Conversion Rate Data Favors: 49ers defense except for massive disparity on 3rd Down.

Overall Rushing First-Down Conversion Rate Data Favors: Colts Defense

Overall Passing First-Down Conversion Rate Data Favors: 49ers Defense 

Overall Passing First-Down Conversion Rate Data Favors: Colts Defense

Sack Rate Data Favors: 49ers Defense

Sack Rate Data Favors: 49ers Offense

Interception Rate Data Favors: 49ers Defense, but there is a decent disparity on 2nd Down favoring Colts.

Interception Rate Data Favors: Colts Defense massively

Overall Impression: The data favors the Colts, but there is not a massive difference between these two teams. This is a winnable game for the 49ers. However, the Colts’ defense has shown to be at least average. And the ability to create interceptions that can change the tide of games is high for the Colts as well. Thus I’d side with a victory for the Colts. 

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns NFL Week 4 Analytics Preview

Hello and welcome to another fine week of NFL football with a preview of the Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns game based on analytics.

If you are new to my work, the link to a glossary of terms is here.

 

Overall Data Favors: Bengals due to defense advantages.

Overall Completion Data Favors: Bengals over Browns D except for 3rd Down situations. 

Overall Completion Data Favors: Bengals over Browns offense. 

Rushing 1st Down Conversion Data Favors: Browns over Bengals offense.

Rushing 1st Down Conversion Data Favors: Browns over Bengals defense except for 3rd Down situations. 

Passing 1st Down Conversion Data Favors: Bengals over Browns defense except for 2nd Down situations. 

Passing 1st Down Conversion Data Favors: Bengals defense

Sack Rate on Various Downs Favors: Browns defense except for 2nd Down situations.

Sack Rate on Various Downs Favors: Bengals’ defense overwhelmingly. 

Interception Rate on Various Downs Favors: Bengals offense except for 3rd downs and especially 3rd and long. 

Interception Rate on Various Downs Favors: Bengals defense overwhelmingly. 

 

Glossary of NFL Matchup Terms

Total O Score: First-Down Conversion Percentage for all downs compared against all team performances since 1998.

O/D: First-Down Conversion Percentage Score+First Down Prevention Percentage score

TO%: Percentage of turnovers per possession on offense compared to all offenses since 1998.

Sack%: Percentage of sacks per possession on offense compared to all offenses since 1998.

OSC%: Percentage of drives leading to a offensive score compared to all offenses since 1998.

Total D Score: First-Down Prevention Percentage for all downs compared against all defense performances since 1998

DOSC%: Percentage of drives leading to offensive score compared to all defenses since 1998.

DTO%: Percentage of drives leading to a offensive turnover compared to all defenses since 1998.

DSack%: Percentage of drives leading to a sack compared to all defenses since 1998.

INT%: Percentage of drives leading to a interception compared to all defenses since 1998.

FG%: Field Goal percentage compared to all teams since 1998.

XP%: Extra point percentage compared to all teams since 1998.

PA: Average yards per punt compared to all teams since 1998.

40-49: Field Goal percentage of 40-49 yards compared to all teams since 1998.

50+: Field Goal percentage of 50+ yards compared to all teams since 1998.

Y/R: Yards per punt return compared to all offenses since 1998.

Y/K: Yards per kick return compared to all offenses since 1998.

P/TD%: Touchdowns per punt return compared to all offenses teams since 1998.

KTD%: Touchdowns per kick return compared to all offenses since 1998.

DY/R: Yards per punt return compared to all defenses since 1998.

DY/K: Yards per kick return compared to all defenses since 1998.

DP/TD%: Touchdowns per punt return compared to all defenses teams since 1998.

DKTD%: Touchdowns per kick return compared to all defenses since 1998.

The All-QB NFL Mock Draft

The All-Quarterback mock is a NFL mock draft created entirely of quarterback prospects. The draft selection rankings are based on an extremely confusing and arbitrary set of Pythagorean theorems with heavy emphasis on the illuminati. If you are confused and don’t have a clue about what I just said. Then you are not prepared for this mock. If you think I should just call this a ranking versus a mock, then you are a communist and capitalist cuck who doesn’t deserve an explanation. This is the All-Quarterback mock.

San Francisco 49ers Select: Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma
That’s right, Make America Dougie Again! And Katy Perry should allow this very short man to score in the paint.

Indianapolis Colts Select: Lamar Jackson, WR/QB, Louisville
I know he’s never played quarterback in his entire football career, but my subconscious. And my very biased fantasy of Lamar Jackson actually doing quarterback things is too rich not to indulge in. There is literally zero film of Jackson doing quarterback things. Thus with no evidence, this is purely speculation here. I apologize for my flights of fancy.

New York Giants Select: Sam Darnold, QB, USC
It’s time for Eli to go. His offensive line is horrific in a slow descent of madness that is the Giants’ front office. But change is necessary. With a quarterback whose subscapularis muscles must be inflamed every week.

Cincinnati Bengals Select: Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA
The Chosen Rosen removes the Orange Cuck that is Andy Dalton.

New Orleans Saints Select: Trace McSorley, QB, Penn State
Drew Brees isn’t getting any more clichéd.

Cleveland Browns Select: Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming
Every number says no, but Hue Jackson says yes.

Chicago Bears Select: Austin Allen, QB, Arkansas
Mitch Triscuitby will crunch under pressure allowing some backdoor action with Allen.

New York Jets Select: Mason Rudolph, QB, Oklahoma State
He’s kind of like Bryce Petty, but better. Maybe.

Los Angeles Chargers Select: Brett Rypien, QB, Boise State
NFL bloodlines baby!

Arizona Cardinals Select: Ryan Finley, QB, N.C. State
He’s not Ryan Lindley I promise.

Cleveland Browns Select: Jake Browning, QB, Washington
PAC-12 quarterback with a weak velocity, but can execute the offense. Sound familiar?

Dallas Cowboys Select: Mike White, QB, Western Kentucky
Decent backup West Coast type.

Minnesota Vikings Select: Clayton Thorson, QB, Northwestern
Kyle Sloter is the future, but Thorson can pick up the pieces left by wounded veterans.

Seattle Seahawks Select: Quinton Flowers, QB, South Florida
He’s used to running around with no offensive line help too.

New England Patriots Select: J.T. Barrett, QB, Ohio State
Belichick connection.

Green Bay Packers Select: Kyle Allen, QB Houston
He was good in high school.

Jacksonville Jaguars Select: Kenny Hill, QB, TCU
He’s kind of like Johnny Manziel with less of the other stuff.

Washington Redskins Select: Logan Woodside, QB, Toledo
I haven’t watched his film this year, but that isn’t the point of mocks.

Buffalo Bills Select: Richard Lagow, QB, Indiana
He’s kind of like E.J. Manuel. Tall and big arm. That’s about it.

Philadelphia Eagles Select: Riley Ferguson, QB, Memphis
He’s the guy Carson Wentz’ girlfriend told him not to worry about.

Tennessee Titans Select: Chase Litton, QB, Marshall
I literally just googled “2018 NFL draft quarterbacks” and his name popped up.

Los Angeles Rams Select: Jarett Stidham, QB, Auburn
Nice camp arm.

Detroit Lions Select: Wilson Speight, QB, Michigan
Lion fans will be familiar with him.

Pittsburgh Steelers Select: Nick Fitzgerald, QB, Mississippi State
Lots of physical tools with little development.

Baltimore Ravens Select: Drew Lock, QB, Missouri
Cool name.

Denver Broncos Select: Anu Soloman, QB, Arizona
The spread version of Trevor Siemian.

Atlanta Falcons Select: Keller Chryst, QB, Stanford
Running out of wiggle room here.

Miami Dolphins Select: Will Grier, QB, West Virginia
It could work out.

Carolina Panthers Select: Malik Zaire, QB, Notre Dame
He was good once.

Buffalo Bills Select: No one
Because they already passed on the greatest quarterback god ever created. The holiest of holies: Patrick Mahomes.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Select: Danny Etling, QB, LSU
I’m running out of options here.

Oakland Raiders Select: Luke Del Rio, QB, Florida
Son of Jack Del Rio.

Brad Ellis Scouting Report: Kansas

Name:  Brad Ellis

School: Ohio

Opponent: Kansas

Height/Weight: 5-10, 176

Year:   rSr

Score:  30-46

Date:   9/16/17

Location: Ohio

Overall Score: 51

Category Score:

Quickness: 4/8

Fluidity: 4/8

Flexibility: 4/8

Power:    4/8

Recognition Skills: 8/8

Consistency: 0/8

Zone:      8/10

Man/Press: 2/10

Tackling: 4/8

Pattern: 4/6

Ball Skills: 3/12

Durability: 6/6

Quickness

Demonstrates quickness in all directions-4pts: Yes

Above-average quickness for his size-4pts:   No                                                                         

Fluidity

Displays fluid movements while reacting-4pts: Yes

No visible signs of stiffness-4pts: No

Flexibility           

Demonstrates excellent flexibility for size-4pts: No

Flexible enough to maintain leverage-4pts:   Yes                                                       

Power

Demonstrates an effective punch-4pts: Yes

Sheds blocks quickly-4pts: No

Recognition Skills             

Makes proper adjustments to offensive actions-4pts: Yes

Recognizes block patterns and neutralizes them-4pts:  Yes                                       

Consistency

Demonstrates reliability under pressure-4pts: No

Demonstrates a high football I.Q.-4pts: No

Zone Coverage  

Doesn’t over pursue or overreact-2pts: No

Stays in assigned zone-2pts: Yes

Drops to landmark and reads-2pts: Yes

Makes good decisions-2pts: Yes

Doesn’t break on shallow routes ball out-2pts: Yes                                                     

Man/Press Coverage

Initiates contact with receiver-2pts:   Yes

Doesn’t allow clean release-2pts: No

Proper eye/vision discipline to adjust-2pts: No

Proper footwork to break on routes-2pts: No

Plays the ball in the air-2pts: No

Tackling

Effective open field tackling-4pts: No

Effective open field angle tackling-2pts: Yes

Effective sideline tackling-2pts:       Yes                                                                                       

Pattern reads     

Proper short pattern read and reaction-2pts: No

Proper medium pattern read and reaction-2pts: No

Proper deep pattern read and reaction-2pts: No

Ball Skills/Playmaker                                                                                                                      

Reads QB’s eyes-3pts: Yes

Adjusts body to the football-1pt: No

Catches ball with hands away from body-2pts: No

Makes difficult catches-1pt: No

Catches ball in tight coverage-2pts: No

Strips ball when opportunity arises- 3pts: No

Durability

Missed fewer than 10% of opportunities to play thus far in college-2pts: Yes

Without chronic injuries throughout college career-2pts: Yes

Without injuries requiring extensive rehab during college career-2pts:   Yes

Dorance Armstrong Scouting Report: Ohio

Name:  Dorance Armstrong

School: Kansas

Opponent: Ohio

Height/Weight: 6-4, 246

Year:   Jr

Score:  30-46

Date: 9/16/17

Location: Ohio

Overall Score: 51

Category Score:

Quickness: 4/8

Fluidity: 8/8

Flexibility: 4/8

Power: 4/8

Recognition Skills: 4/8

Consistency: 0/8

Blocks:  6/18

Pass Rush: 8/18

Pursuit/Stunts/Tackling: 7/10

Durability: 6/6

Quickness                                                                            

Demonstrates quickness in all directions-4pts: Yes

Above-average quickness for his size-4pts: No

Fluidity

Displays fluid movements while reacting-4pts: Yes

No visible signs of stiffness-4pts: Yes

 

Flexibility                                                                                           

Demonstrates excellent flexibility for size-4pts: No

Flexible enough to maintain leverage-4pts:   Yes

Power

Demonstrates an effective punch-4pts: Yes

Sheds blocks quickly-4pts: No

Recognition Skills                                                                             

Makes proper adjustments to offensive actions-4pts:  Yes

Recognizes block patterns and neutralizes them-4pts:  No

Consistency

Demonstrates reliability under pressure-4pts: No

Demonstrates a high football I.Q.-4pts: No

Blocks                                                                                                  

Neutralizes drive blocks-2pts: Yes

Neutralizes hook blocks from left and right-2pts: No

Neutralizes angle blocks-2pts: Yes

Neutralizes scoop blocks-2pts: No

Neutralizes double teams-2pts: No

Neutralizes trap blocks-2pts: No

Neutralizes lead blocks-1pt: No

Neutralizes fold blocks-1pt: No

Neutralizes cut block-2pts:                No

Neutralizes high hat reads- 2pts: Yes

Pass Rush

Effective speed rush-2pts: Yes

Effective push pull-2pts: No

Effective bull rush-2pts: No

Effective club move-2pts: Yes

Effective swim move-2pts: No

Effective stunt move-2pts: Yes

Effective club and slip move-2pts: Yes

Effective club and spin move-2pts: No

Recognizes and adjusts to QB drop-1pt: No

Can string together multiple moves-1pt: No

Pursuit                                                                                                 

Effective lateral pursuit-1pt: Yes

Effective wide pursuit-1pt:                No

Effective screen pass pursuit-1pt:    Yes

Effective downfield pass pursuit-1pt: No

Draw-Play pursuit-1pt: No

Stunts

Effective two-man stunt-1pt: Yes

Effective three-man stunt-1pt: Yes

Effective LB stunt-1pt: Yes

Tackling

Effective open field tackling-1pt: Yes

Effective shed and tackle-1pt: Yes

Durability

Missed fewer than 10% of opportunities to play thus far in college-2pts:  Yes

Without chronic injuries throughout college career-2pts:  Yes

Without injuries requiring extensive rehab during college career-2pts: Yes

 

Steven Sims Jr. Scouting Report: Ohio

Name: Steven Sims Jr.

School: Kansas

Ht/Wt: 5-10, 176

Year: Jr

Opponent: Ohio

Location: Ohio

Score: 30-46

Date: 9/16/17

Overall Score: 70/100

Category Score:

Routes 16/25

Receiving 21/25

Stance/Release/Separation 11/11

Ball Handling 6/6

Elusiveness/Power After the Catch 5/13

Blocking 0/3

Vision 3/6

Balance 2/5

Durability 6/6

Routes

Good Depth-2pts: Yes

Good Glide Manipulation-3pts: Yes

Good Sprint Manipulation-3pts: Yes

Good Burst/Effort in Break-3pts: Yes

Effective Short Patterns-2pts: Yes

Effective Intermediate Patterns-4pts: No

Effective Deep Patterns-2pts: No

Effective Man recognition-2pts: Yes

Effective Zone recognition-2pts: No

Good Sideline Awareness-2pt: Yes

Receiving

Hands catcher-4pts: Yes

Good ball tracking without seeing ball leave the QBs hand-4pts: Yes

Good body control-3pts: Yes

Consistency-3pts: Yes

Effective in traffic-3pts: No

Effective in contested situations-3pts: Yes

Maintains catch after contact-3pts: Yes

Can make difficult catches-1pt: No

Stance/Releases/Separation

Proper Stance-2pts: Yes

Effective Inside Release-2pts: Yes

Effective Outside Release-2pts: Yes

Consistent separation-4pts: Yes

Deep/intermediate separation-1pt: Yes

Ball Handling                                     

Good ball security-2pts: Yes

Maintains security through catch-3pts: Yes

Uses correct arm parallel to sideline-1pt: Yes

Elusiveness/Power After the Catch

Effective jukes in space-2pts: Yes

Multiple jukes in space-2pts: No

Avoids direct contact-2pts: No

Breaks tackles-3-pts: No

Good stiff arm/punch-1pt: No

Good determination after the catch-3pts: Yes

Blocking

Effective punch-1pt: No

Correct hand placement-1pt: No

Effective mirror blocking-1/2pt: No

Effective hook block-1/2pt: No

Vision   

Decisive-3pts: Yes

Accurate-3pts: No                                                                              

Balance

Maintains footing when making cuts-2pts:  Yes

Maintains balance when hit head on-2pts:  No

Balance when hit from an indirect angle-1pts:  No

Durability

Missed fewer than 10% of opportunities to play thus far in college-2pts: Yes

Without chronic injuries throughout college career-2pts: Yes

Without injuries requiring extensive rehab during college career-2pts: Yes

Joe Dineen Scouting Report: Ohio

Name:  Joe Dineen

School: Kansas

Opponent: Ohio

Height/Weight: 6-2, 230

Year:   rJr

Score:  30-42

Date:   9/16/17

Location: Ohio

Overall Score: 57

Category Score:

Quickness: 4/7

Fluidity: 4/7

Flexibility: 3/7

Power:    4/8

Recognition Skills: 8/8

Consistency: 0/8

Block Recognition/Reaction:            6/12

Pass Rush: 4/12

Pursuit/Tackling:                 10/10

Pass Coverage: 8/15

Durability: 6/6

Position fit: MLB

Quickness                                                                                            

Demonstrates quickness in all directions-4pts: Yes

Above-average quickness for his size-3pts:   No

Fluidity

Displays fluid movements while reacting-4pts: Yes

No visible signs of stiffness-3pts: No

Flexibility                                                                                           

Demonstrates excellent flexibility for size-4pts: No

Flexible enough to maintain leverage-3pts:   Yes

Power

Demonstrates an effective punch-4pts: Yes

Sheds blocks quickly-4pts: No

Recognition Skills                                                                             

Makes proper adjustments to offensive actions-4pts:  Yes

Recognizes block patterns and neutralizes them-4pts: Yes

Consistency

Demonstrates reliability under pressure-4pts: No

Demonstrates a high football I.Q.-4pts: No

Blocks                                                                                                                                                  

Neutralizes drive blocks-2pts:  Yes

Neutralizes cut blocks-2pts:  No

Neutralizes angle blocks-2pts:  Yes

Neutralizes hook blocks-2pts:  No

Neutralizes trap blocks-2pts:  No

Neutralizes lead block-2pts: Yes

Pass Rush

Effective outside blitz-4pts: No

Effective inside blitz-4pts: No

Effective stunts-4pts:  Yes

Tackling                                                                                              

Effective open field tackling-3pts:   Yes

Effective sideline tackling-2pt:         Yes

Effective gang-tackling-1pt:              Yes

Pursuit 

Effective strong side/weak side pursuit-2pts: Yes

Effective depth in pursuit-2pts: Yes

Zone Pass Defense                                                                            

Doesn’t over pursue or overreact-2pts:  No

Stays in assigned zone-2pts:             Yes

Drops to landmark and reads QB-2pts:  Yes

Makes good decisions-2pts:              Yes

Doesn’t break on shallow routes ball out-2pts: Yes

Man-to-Man Pass Defense

Backpedals-1pt: No

Angle backpedals-1pt:  No

Rolls over to direction of play-1pt:   No

Tips ball in coverage-1pt:   No

Intercepts ball in coverage-1pt:   No

Durability

Missed fewer than 10% of opportunities to play thus far in college-2pts: Yes

Without chronic injuries throughout college career-2pts: Yes

Without injuries requiring extensive rehab during college career-2pts: Yes

Ben Banogu Scouting Report: Arkansas

Name:  Ben Banogu

School: TCU

Opponent: Arkansas

Height/Weight: 6-4, 240

Year:   rJr

Score:  28-7

Date: 9/9/17

Location: Arkansas

Overall Score: 62

Category Score:

Quickness: 4/8

Fluidity: 8/8

Flexibility: 4/8

Power: 4/8

Recognition Skills: 8/8

Consistency: 4/8

Blocks:  8/18

Pass Rush: 8/18

Pursuit/Stunts/Tackling: 8/10

Durability: 6/6

Quickness                                                                            

Demonstrates quickness in all directions-4pts: Yes

Above-average quickness for his size-4pts:   No

Fluidity

Displays fluid movements while reacting-4pts: Yes

No visible signs of stiffness-4pts: Yes

 

Flexibility                                                                                           

Demonstrates excellent flexibility for size-4pts: No

Flexible enough to maintain leverage-4pts:   Yes

Power

Demonstrates an effective punch-4pts: Yes

Sheds blocks quickly-4pts: No

Recognition Skills                                                                             

Makes proper adjustments to offensive actions-4pts:  Yes

Recognizes block patterns and neutralizes them-4pts:  Yes

Consistency

Demonstrates reliability under pressure-4pts: Yes

Demonstrates a high football I.Q.-4pts: No

Blocks                                                                                                  

Neutralizes drive blocks-2pts: Yes

Neutralizes hook blocks from left and right-2pts: Yes

Neutralizes angle blocks-2pts: Yes

Neutralizes scoop blocks-2pts: No

Neutralizes double teams-2pts: No

Neutralizes trap blocks-2pts: No

Neutralizes lead blocks-1pt: No

Neutralizes fold blocks-1pt: No

Neutralizes cut block-2pts:                No

Neutralizes high hat reads- 2pts: Yes

Pass Rush

Effective speed rush-2pts: Yes

Effective push pull-2pts: No

Effective bull rush-2pts: No

Effective club move-2pts: Yes

Effective swim move-2pts: No

Effective stunt move-2pts: Yes

Effective club and slip move-2pts: Yes

Effective club and spin move-2pts: No

Recognizes and adjusts to QB drop-1pt: No

Can string together multiple moves-1pt: No

Pursuit                                                                                                 

Effective lateral pursuit-1pt: Yes

Effective wide pursuit-1pt:                No

Effective screen pass pursuit-1pt: Yes

Effective downfield pass pursuit-1pt: No

Draw-Play pursuit-1pt: Yes

Stunts

Effective two-man stunt-1pt: Yes

Effective three-man stunt-1pt: Yes

Effective LB stunt-1pt: Yes

Tackling

Effective open field tackling-1pt: Yes

Effective shed and tackle-1pt: Yes

Durability

Missed fewer than 10% of opportunities to play thus far in college-2pts:  Yes

Without chronic injuries throughout college career-2pts: Yes

Without injuries requiring extensive rehab during college career-2pts: Yes