Here is my review of the Miami Dolphins 2017 NFL Draft class.
Welcome to the 2017 NFL Draft live analysis page. This page will go live thirty minutes before the NFL Draft at 7:30 P.M. Eastern. I will give my first initial thoughts and predictions. And I will update throughout the night with my impressions as the selections are made. With the main goal of giving some insight into what type of data/analytics if any were used in the selection, and how that may or may not pay off in the long-term. Be sure to check back to this page through the draft and have a nice Draft day.
Lastly, make sure you check out my 2017 NFL Draft Analytics guide here. Link is in the description. There are a lot of very talented data guys out there. But I promise you, none provide as in depth of an approach as I do. Combining all of the major facets of data evaluation including age, production, athleticism and physical characteristics backed by decades(not years) worth of evidence. The draft is already here, get your copy today.
Hello Everybody, welcome to the eve of the 2017 NFL Draft. Running a little late, but I’m here. Feel free to leave a comment if you have questions.
Cleveland Browns select: Myles Garrett, DE, Texas A&M
90+ percentile explosiveness and speed.
Plus Julius Peppers like market share production and a similar physical profile to most elite pass rushers.
Chicago Bears trade up to select: Mitch Trubisky
Hit both HS and College markers for a Pro Bowl quarterback.
Only one year of production at a relatively older age does not bode well from a historical perspective.
Questionable pick in terms of draft capital given up for.
San Francisco 49ers select: Soloman Thomas
Justin Houston level athlete.
Khalil Mack market share production against top competition.
Jacksonville Jaguars select: Leonard Fournette
Similar profile to Demarco Murray with All-Pro production.
Lack of agility testing is concerning.
Tennessee Titans select: Corey Davis
Elite market share production, but did not dominate his level of competition the way Randy Moss did.
Lack of testing also hurts his projection.
New York Jets select: Jamal Adams, DS, LSU
Reggie Nelson level athlete
Good production, but lacks elite solo tackle market share indicating an elite strong safety. And lack elite pass deflection market share in terms of an elite free safety.
San Diego Chargers Select: Mike Williams, WR, Clemson
Averageish athlete in terms of explosiveness and speed
Hasn’t been a Pro Bowler with his market share production since the 1990s.
Carolina Panthers Select: Christian McCaffrey
All-Pro level production
Elite flexibility for his size
Below average arm length. Only RBs with as short of arms to become a long-term starter since 2002 NFL Draft class were Chris Johnson and C.J. Spiller.
Cincinnati Bengals select: John Ross
Elite speed with similar qualities to Santana Moss and Joey Galloway
3-Time Pro Bowl production
Injury history is concerning
Kansas City Chiefs select: Patrick Mahomes
Pro Bowl level college production
High School production is concerning by not hitting starter level production.
However, with Andy Reid as his mentor. I can see Mahomes becoming a Donovan McNabb/Brett Favre like career.
New Orleans Saints select: Marshon Lattimore
Great explosiveness and elite speed
His market share production is not All-Pro level.
Lacks elite arm length.
Similar traits to Justin Gilbert due to skipping agility drills.
Houston Texans Select: Deshaun Watson
Best indicators of any quarterback in this class.
Elite college and high school production.
Arizona Cardinals Select: Haason Reddick, LB, Temple
Pro Bowl level production for an Edge rusher.
Age is a concern in terms of All-Pro upside.
Philadelphia Eagles Select: Derek Barnett, DE, Tennessee
Elite production against top competition
Similar profile to Terrell Suggs.
Lacks elite explosiveness and speed for his size to say he is risk free.
Indianapolis Colts Select: Malik Hooker
Very good production and age.
Did not test to judge athleticism.
Baltimore Ravens select: Marlon Humphrey, CB, Alabama
Stanford Routt athleticism.
Lack elite level pass deflection market share.
Washington Redskins Select: Jonathan Allen, DT, Alabama
Great overall production
Good, but not great athleticism traits.
Tennessee Titans Select: Adoree Jackson, CB, USC
Good athleticism and production.
Lacks elite length and size.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Select: O.J. Howard, TE, Alabama
Pro Bowl level production.
Lacks elite explosiveness.
Denver Broncos Select: Garrett Bolles, OT/OG, Utah
Good athlete, but lack height profile of elite tackles.
Better fit inside.
Detroit Lions Select: Jarrad Davis, LB, Florida
Above average explosiveness and speed
Did not hit All-Pro or Pro Bowl level production marks
Miami Dolphins Select: Charles Harris, DE, Missouri
Poor athleticism profile.
Good production profile.
New York Giants Select: Evan Engram
Great athleticism profile.
Todd Christensen production level.
Oakland Raiders Select: Gareon Conley, CB, Ohio State
Good athleticism traits.
Lacks production and similar to Justin Gilbert in that regard.
Cleveland Browns Select: Jabrill Peppers
Elite explosiveness and speed
Lack INT market share to become an elite safety.
Small version of Eric Reid.
Atlanta Falcons select: Takkarist McKinley
Kamerion Wimbley level athlete
Great production across the board
Poor value compared to other options
Buffalo Bills Select: Tre White
D.J. Hayden level athlete
Good production across the board
Dallas Cowboys Select: Taco Charlton, DE, Michigan
Above average explosiveness and flexibility.
Below average speed.
Average production across the board.
Cleveland Browns Select: David Njoku, TE, Miami
All-Pro level production
Above average production across the board at a very young age.
Pittsburgh Steelers Select: T.J. Watt
Pro Bowl level athleticism and Production.
Scott Fujita like.
San Francisco 49ers Select: Reuben Foster
Good not great solo tackle market share.
No athletic testing to determine much.
New Orleans Saints Select: Ryan Ramcyzk
Good overall physical profile, but no athleticism to determine overall upside.
Best Availables for Day 2.
Here is my Big Board Horizontal board. Divided by the position I believe they will excel at.
Here is a link to my recently released 2017 NFL Draft Analytics guide. It has over 500+ data profiles looking at all the data I use on this blog. The purchase helps to keep this blog going. So, buy it and share it if you are a fan of my work. Even leaving a comment and rating the guide is helpful as well.
Any bit of feedback is appreciated. I will shift my focus for the next week looking at the future class up until the draft. And after the draft, I will focus on team based draft reviews. In addition to starting a YouTube channel where I will upload informative data based videos. This blog will grow to new heights this year.
I’m happy for all who have checked out my posts. Left a comment. Or even subscribed, which helps me out a lot as well. The NFL Draft and analytics are a major passion of mine. And I am so appreciative of all the support I have received from y’all.
So, Happy Easter and have a great next week.
Here is Arif Hasan’s spreadsheet, that has 10 yard and 20 yard split data for various positions from 2005-2016.
Just to add, I have published all my grades on the 2017 NFL draft class on this blog. However, I decided to publish my spreadsheet with those grades to show who I’ve covered and not covered. Some of these prospect didn’t declare. But it has all the grades I did from August until January.
|2017 Free Agency Profiles|
|Age (On Draft Day)||22.75|
|Explosive Lower Body Strength Score||92.62|
|Best NFL Production Score||86.95286195|
|Three-year NFL Production average||66.5263748597082|
|No||All-Pro and Pro Bowl Age Percentile: 76 or Higher||90% of Multiple All-Pro and Pro Bowl DS Since the 1998 NFL Draft Class were in the 76 Percentile or Higher of age ranked from youngest to oldest|
|Yes||All-Pro and Pro Bowl MSA Percentile: 82 or Higher||100% of Multiple All-Pro and Pro Bowl DS’ Since the 1998 NFL Draft Class were in the 82 Percentile or higher in MSA|
|No||All-Pro SS Arm Length: 33’’ or Longer||100% of Multiple All-Pro SS’ since the 1998 NFL Draft Class had 33’’ or Longer Arm Length|
|N/A||All-Pro FS Arm Length: 29’’ or Longer||100% of Multiple All-Pro FS’ since the 1998 NFL Draft Class had 29’’ or Longer Arm Length|
|Yes||All-Pro SS Explosive Lower Body Strength Score: 91.53 or higher||100% of Multiple All-Pro SS since the 1998 NFL Draft Class had an explosive lower body strength score of 91.53 or higher|
|N/A||All-Pro FS Explosive Lower Body Strength Score: 33.48 or higher||100% of Multiple All-Pro FS since the 1998 NFL Draft Class had an explosive lower body strength score of 33.48 or higher|
|Yes||Pro Bowl SS Explosive Lower Body Strength Score: 66.24 or higher||100% of Multiple Pro Bowl SS since the 1998 NFL Draft Class had an explosive lower body strength score of 66.24 or higher|
|N/A||Pro Bowl FS Explosive Lower Body Strength Score: 33.48 or higher||100% of Multiple Pro Bowl FS since the 1998 NFL Draft Class had an explosive lower body strength score of 33.48 or higher|
|Yes||Starter Explosive Lower Body Strength Score: 15.46 or higher||100% of 64 start or more DS since the 1998 NFL Draft class had an explosive lower body strength score of 15.46 or higher|
|No||All-Pro Speed Score: 85.80 or higher||80% of multiple All-Pro DS since the 1998 NFL Draft class had a speed score of 85.80 or higher|
|Yes||Pro Bowl Speed Score: 42.12 or higher||100% of multiple DS since the 1998 NFL Draft class had a speed score of 42.12 or higher|
|Yes||Starter Speed Score: 23.38 or higher||100% of 64 start or more DS since the 1998 NFL Draft class had a speed score of 23.38 or higher|
|No||All-Pro and Pro Bowl Flexibility Score: 85.89 or higher||87.5% of multiple All-Pro and Pro Bowl DS since the 1998 NFL Draft class had a flexibility score of 85.89 or higher|
|Yes||Starter Flexibility Score: 23.02 or higher||100% of 64 start or more DS since the 1998 NFL Draft class had a flexibility score of 23.02 or higher|
|Yes||Starter Bench: 4 reps or more||100% of 64 start or more DS since the 1998 NFL Draft class had 4 reps or more on the bench press|
*MSA Rating: The average score of a prospect’s market share production, strength of schedule and age percentile scores
*Explosive Lower Body Strength Score: A score formulated from a prospect’s vertical, broad jump and mass density measured against all his positional peers since 1998.
*Speed Score: A score formulated from a prospect’s 40-yard dash and mass density measured against all his positional peers since 1998.
*Flexibility Score: A score formulated from a prospect’s short shuttle, 3-Cone and mass density measured against all his positional peers since 1998.
NFL Market Share Production
Metric Recommendation: Jonathan Cyprien is a classic strong safety in how he produces, but lacks the athletic ability or size to be an elite strong safety. Biggest negatives are age, speed and flexibility miss the mark of an All-Pro or even multiple Pro Bowl safety. Based on his athletic qualities, you want to take advantage of his elite explosiveness. While devising ways to limit the potential liabilities of speed and stiffness.
Based on his NFL production and some of his metric limitations, I’d recommend a salary of 2,582,625 to 3,589,000 adjusting for salary cap increases. This would put him slightly above the average salary for NFL strong safeties. A good description of what you should expect with Cyprien. Slightly above average strong safety impact, but don’t expect an Elite or near Elite player in the future.