2018 NFL Draft Analytics Profile Updates

RB

Mark Walton

Kyle Hicks

Justin Crawford

Jeffrey Wilson

DErnest Johnson

Ito Smith

Darrel Williams

WR

Darren Carrington

Braxton Berrios

Antonio Calloway

TE

Jordan Akins

Chris Herndon IV

OT

Timon Parris

Aaron Evans

OG

Martinas Rankin

Kyle Bosch

OC

Jacob Ohnesorge

Austin Kuhnert

Edge

Uchenna Nwosu

Ja’Von Rolland-Jones

James Hearns

Chad Thomas

IDL

Kendrick Norton

Lowell Lotulelei

P.J. Hall

R.J. McIntosh

LB

Shaquem Griffin

Malik Jefferson

Andre Smith

CB

Duke Dawson

J.C. Jackson

DS

Deshon Elliot

Kyzir White

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Tennessee Titans vs. Cleveland Browns NFL Week 7 Analytics Preview

Welcome to another week of NFL football. Now let’s get to who the data favors between the Cleveland Browns and Tennessee Titans based on analytics.

And if you are new to the site, a glossary of terms are here.

Overall Data Favors: Tennessee Titans due to offense and special teams.

Overall Completion Data Favors: Titans’ Defense

Overall Completion Data Favors: Titans’ Offense

Rushing 1st Down Conversion Data Favors: Browns’ rushing offense

Rushing 1st Down Conversion Data Favors: Browns’ rushing defense

Passing 1st Down Conversion Data Favors: Browns’ passing offense except for 3rd down

Passing 1st Down Conversion Data Favors: Titans’ passing offense

Sack Rate on Various Downs Favors: Browns’ offense

Sack Rate on Various Downs Favors: Titans’ offense

Interception Rate on Various Downs Favors: Browns’ defense

Interception Rate on Various Downs Favors: Browns’ defense

 

New York Jets vs. Cleveland Browns NFL Week 5 Analytics Preview

Welcome to another week of NFL football. Now let’s get to who the data favors between the New York Jets and Cleveland Browns based on analytics.

And if you are new to the site, a glossary of terms are here.

Overall Basic Data Favors: New York Jets

Overall Completion Data Favors: New York Jets Defense

Overall Completion Percentage Data Favors: New York Jets Offense

Rushing First-Down Conversion Rate Data Favors: New York Jets Defense

Rushing First-Down Conversion Rate Data Favors: Cleveland Browns Defense

Passing First-Down Conversion Rate Data Favors: New York Jets Defense

Passing First-Down Conversion Rate Data Favors: New York Jets Offense

Sack Rate Data Favors: New York Jets Defense heavily on 2nd Down

Sack Rate Data Favors: Cleveland Browns Defense

Interception Rate Data Favors: New York Jets Defense

Interception Rate Data Favors: New York Jets Offense, except for 3rd Down disparity

Overall Impressions: Unless the Cleveland Browns drastically improve their offense and defense, it’s a clear Jet victory. There is plenty of blame to go around for the Browns’ offense, but you can not continue to play this way and expect to win football games. The advice I’d give is to lean on the parts of the offense that work the best in creating first-downs in the run game. The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again expecting different results. If the Browns think airing it out will lead to victories, then the sacks and interceptions will continue to beat this team’s chances for any type of victory for the foreseeable future. 

 

San Francisco 49ers vs. Indianapolis Colts NFL Week 5 Analytics Preview

Welcome to NFL Week 5. Now let’s get to who the data favors in the San Francisco 49ers vs. Indianapolis Colts matchup.

And if you are new to my work a glossary of terms can be found here.

Overall NFL Data Favors: Colts due to defensive strengths.

Overall Completion Data Favors: Colts Offense 

Overall Completion Data Favors: 49ers Defense. 

Overall Rushing First-Down Conversion Rate Data Favors: 49ers defense except for massive disparity on 3rd Down.

Overall Rushing First-Down Conversion Rate Data Favors: Colts Defense

Overall Passing First-Down Conversion Rate Data Favors: 49ers Defense 

Overall Passing First-Down Conversion Rate Data Favors: Colts Defense

Sack Rate Data Favors: 49ers Defense

Sack Rate Data Favors: 49ers Offense

Interception Rate Data Favors: 49ers Defense, but there is a decent disparity on 2nd Down favoring Colts.

Interception Rate Data Favors: Colts Defense massively

Overall Impression: The data favors the Colts, but there is not a massive difference between these two teams. This is a winnable game for the 49ers. However, the Colts’ defense has shown to be at least average. And the ability to create interceptions that can change the tide of games is high for the Colts as well. Thus I’d side with a victory for the Colts. 

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns NFL Week 4 Analytics Preview

Hello and welcome to another fine week of NFL football with a preview of the Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns game based on analytics.

If you are new to my work, the link to a glossary of terms is here.

 

Overall Data Favors: Bengals due to defense advantages.

Overall Completion Data Favors: Bengals over Browns D except for 3rd Down situations. 

Overall Completion Data Favors: Bengals over Browns offense. 

Rushing 1st Down Conversion Data Favors: Browns over Bengals offense.

Rushing 1st Down Conversion Data Favors: Browns over Bengals defense except for 3rd Down situations. 

Passing 1st Down Conversion Data Favors: Bengals over Browns defense except for 2nd Down situations. 

Passing 1st Down Conversion Data Favors: Bengals defense

Sack Rate on Various Downs Favors: Browns defense except for 2nd Down situations.

Sack Rate on Various Downs Favors: Bengals’ defense overwhelmingly. 

Interception Rate on Various Downs Favors: Bengals offense except for 3rd downs and especially 3rd and long. 

Interception Rate on Various Downs Favors: Bengals defense overwhelmingly. 

 

Glossary of NFL Matchup Terms

Total O Score: First-Down Conversion Percentage for all downs compared against all team performances since 1998.

O/D: First-Down Conversion Percentage Score+First Down Prevention Percentage score

TO%: Percentage of turnovers per possession on offense compared to all offenses since 1998.

Sack%: Percentage of sacks per possession on offense compared to all offenses since 1998.

OSC%: Percentage of drives leading to a offensive score compared to all offenses since 1998.

Total D Score: First-Down Prevention Percentage for all downs compared against all defense performances since 1998

DOSC%: Percentage of drives leading to offensive score compared to all defenses since 1998.

DTO%: Percentage of drives leading to a offensive turnover compared to all defenses since 1998.

DSack%: Percentage of drives leading to a sack compared to all defenses since 1998.

INT%: Percentage of drives leading to a interception compared to all defenses since 1998.

FG%: Field Goal percentage compared to all teams since 1998.

XP%: Extra point percentage compared to all teams since 1998.

PA: Average yards per punt compared to all teams since 1998.

40-49: Field Goal percentage of 40-49 yards compared to all teams since 1998.

50+: Field Goal percentage of 50+ yards compared to all teams since 1998.

Y/R: Yards per punt return compared to all offenses since 1998.

Y/K: Yards per kick return compared to all offenses since 1998.

P/TD%: Touchdowns per punt return compared to all offenses teams since 1998.

KTD%: Touchdowns per kick return compared to all offenses since 1998.

DY/R: Yards per punt return compared to all defenses since 1998.

DY/K: Yards per kick return compared to all defenses since 1998.

DP/TD%: Touchdowns per punt return compared to all defenses teams since 1998.

DKTD%: Touchdowns per kick return compared to all defenses since 1998.

The All-QB NFL Mock Draft

The All-Quarterback mock is a NFL mock draft created entirely of quarterback prospects. The draft selection rankings are based on an extremely confusing and arbitrary set of Pythagorean theorems with heavy emphasis on the illuminati. If you are confused and don’t have a clue about what I just said. Then you are not prepared for this mock. If you think I should just call this a ranking versus a mock, then you are a communist and capitalist cuck who doesn’t deserve an explanation. This is the All-Quarterback mock.

San Francisco 49ers Select: Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma
That’s right, Make America Dougie Again! And Katy Perry should allow this very short man to score in the paint.

Indianapolis Colts Select: Lamar Jackson, WR/QB, Louisville
I know he’s never played quarterback in his entire football career, but my subconscious. And my very biased fantasy of Lamar Jackson actually doing quarterback things is too rich not to indulge in. There is literally zero film of Jackson doing quarterback things. Thus with no evidence, this is purely speculation here. I apologize for my flights of fancy.

New York Giants Select: Sam Darnold, QB, USC
It’s time for Eli to go. His offensive line is horrific in a slow descent of madness that is the Giants’ front office. But change is necessary. With a quarterback whose subscapularis muscles must be inflamed every week.

Cincinnati Bengals Select: Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA
The Chosen Rosen removes the Orange Cuck that is Andy Dalton.

New Orleans Saints Select: Trace McSorley, QB, Penn State
Drew Brees isn’t getting any more clichéd.

Cleveland Browns Select: Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming
Every number says no, but Hue Jackson says yes.

Chicago Bears Select: Austin Allen, QB, Arkansas
Mitch Triscuitby will crunch under pressure allowing some backdoor action with Allen.

New York Jets Select: Mason Rudolph, QB, Oklahoma State
He’s kind of like Bryce Petty, but better. Maybe.

Los Angeles Chargers Select: Brett Rypien, QB, Boise State
NFL bloodlines baby!

Arizona Cardinals Select: Ryan Finley, QB, N.C. State
He’s not Ryan Lindley I promise.

Cleveland Browns Select: Jake Browning, QB, Washington
PAC-12 quarterback with a weak velocity, but can execute the offense. Sound familiar?

Dallas Cowboys Select: Mike White, QB, Western Kentucky
Decent backup West Coast type.

Minnesota Vikings Select: Clayton Thorson, QB, Northwestern
Kyle Sloter is the future, but Thorson can pick up the pieces left by wounded veterans.

Seattle Seahawks Select: Quinton Flowers, QB, South Florida
He’s used to running around with no offensive line help too.

New England Patriots Select: J.T. Barrett, QB, Ohio State
Belichick connection.

Green Bay Packers Select: Kyle Allen, QB Houston
He was good in high school.

Jacksonville Jaguars Select: Kenny Hill, QB, TCU
He’s kind of like Johnny Manziel with less of the other stuff.

Washington Redskins Select: Logan Woodside, QB, Toledo
I haven’t watched his film this year, but that isn’t the point of mocks.

Buffalo Bills Select: Richard Lagow, QB, Indiana
He’s kind of like E.J. Manuel. Tall and big arm. That’s about it.

Philadelphia Eagles Select: Riley Ferguson, QB, Memphis
He’s the guy Carson Wentz’ girlfriend told him not to worry about.

Tennessee Titans Select: Chase Litton, QB, Marshall
I literally just googled “2018 NFL draft quarterbacks” and his name popped up.

Los Angeles Rams Select: Jarett Stidham, QB, Auburn
Nice camp arm.

Detroit Lions Select: Wilson Speight, QB, Michigan
Lion fans will be familiar with him.

Pittsburgh Steelers Select: Nick Fitzgerald, QB, Mississippi State
Lots of physical tools with little development.

Baltimore Ravens Select: Drew Lock, QB, Missouri
Cool name.

Denver Broncos Select: Anu Soloman, QB, Arizona
The spread version of Trevor Siemian.

Atlanta Falcons Select: Keller Chryst, QB, Stanford
Running out of wiggle room here.

Miami Dolphins Select: Will Grier, QB, West Virginia
It could work out.

Carolina Panthers Select: Malik Zaire, QB, Notre Dame
He was good once.

Buffalo Bills Select: No one
Because they already passed on the greatest quarterback god ever created. The holiest of holies: Patrick Mahomes.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Select: Danny Etling, QB, LSU
I’m running out of options here.

Oakland Raiders Select: Luke Del Rio, QB, Florida
Son of Jack Del Rio.

Drew Lock Scouting Report: Missouri State

Name:  Drew Lock

School: Missouri

Opponent: Missouri State

Height/Weight: 6-4, 225

Year:   Jr

Score:  43-72

Date: 9/2/17

Location: Missouri

Overall Score: 45

Category Scores:

Accuracy 11/21

Decisions Score 2/14

Ball Handling Score 7/8

Delivery Score 10/16

Arm Strength Score 9/11

Pocket Presence Score 0/18

Scrambling Score 0/5

Durability Score 6/6

Accuracy                                                                             

High completion rate (>60%)-5 pts: Yes

Deep Accuracy- 2 pts: No

Intermediate Accuracy- 7 pts: No

Short Accuracy- 5 pts:  Yes

Accuracy moving right- 1 pts: Yes

Accuracy moving left- 1 pts: No

Decisions

Avoids locking onto one receiver- 3 pts:  No

Plays with controlled aggression- 2 pts:  No

Manipulates defense with eyes- 2pts: No

Makes effective presnap reads- 2pts: Yes

Throws ball away to avoid sacks- 3 pts: No

Checks down judiciously- 2pts: No

Ball Handling                                                                                     

Play Fakes- 1pt:   Yes

Center Exchange-2pts: Yes

Pump Fakes-1pt: No

Ball security while running-2pt: Yes

Maintains security when hit-2pts: Yes

Delivery

Delivers from variety of platforms-2pts: No

Catchable ball (touch, spirals, etc.)-4pts: No

Quick Release-4pts: Yes

Compact Delivery-4pts: Yes

Good drop depth-2pts: Yes

Arm Strength                                                                                     

Deep velocity-2pts: Yes

Deep distance (> than 40 yards)-2 pts: No

Intermediate velocity-5pts: Yes

Velocity on the move-2 pts: Yes

Pocket Presence

Climbs pocket effectively-5pts: No

Willing to take hit to deliver ball-2 pts: No

Senses pass rush-5 pts: No

Manages outside pressure-3 pts: No

Manages pressure up the middle-3 pts: No

Scrambling

Positive yards when breaking the pocket-2pts: No

Positive yards when pocket collapses-1 pt: No

Capable of big gains as a runner- 2pts: No

Durability

Missed fewer than 10% of opportunities to play thus far in college-2pts: Yes

Without chronic injuries throughout college career-2pts: Yes

Without injuries requiring extensive rehab during college career-2pts: Yes

New England Patriots vs. Kansas City Chiefs Metric Matchups

Hello and welcome to another season of NFL football. And this year I will have a treat for you in metric matchups. Each week I will breakdown one game from the NFL using analytics to find where the best mismatches are in addition to team strength and weaknesses from a data perspective.

This week I decided to focus on the first game of the NFL season in the New England Patriots vs. the Kansas City Chiefs. Here is how things stack up athletically speaking.

The Kansas City offense has advantages in terms of skill position athleticism versus the New England secondary. But a key matchup to watch is Bryan Witzmann vs. Alan Branch. Witzman is one of the more unproven and less athletic offensive linemen on the Chiefs. And could potentially be a weakness inside against Branch. Which could disrupt inside runs and speed up Alex Smith’s timing as a passer if pressure comes fast inside.

On the New England offense side of things. They will have skill position advantages as well. Where both Cooks and Malcolm Mitchell have mismatch ability against KC’s corners. Offensive line wise, Justin Houston will be a key concern for New England as his athleticism is a mismatch everywhere. And Shaq Mason vs. Allen Bailey will be a interesting matchup too.

Taking all the athleticism into account on both sides. KC will have an explosiveness advantage on offense. And KC will win in all three athleticism traits on defense overall. Strategy will be key for NE’s offense against KC’s defense. Especially when it comes to the offensive line of NE.

Looking at the offensive and defensive split data from 2016.

 

If this game had happened last season: NE’s rushing offense would have had a easier time compared to Kansas City’s rushing offense.

And passing offense wise: NE’s passing offense would have had a better overall time against KC’s defense compared to the flip side of things.

Looking at the various offensive and defensive split results combined. NE’s offense has a sizable advantage offensively over KC’s defense. With KC’s offense being more evenly matched with NE’s defense.

It’s a new season of course, so these variables will change. However, I would still give NE the advantage in this matchup based on the disparity of the data from 2016. We will see how the athletic advantages of KC will affect this game in 2017. But if there ever was a coach who can out strategize a disadvantage it’s Bill Belichick. So I’d roll with the safer pick in NE this Thursday.

Metric Matchup Prediction: New England Victory if they continue their level of play from 2016 in 2017.