2017 NFL Draft Analytics Profile: Jordan Willis

2017 NFL Draft Profiles

Jordan Willis

Defensive End/3-4 OLB

Team Kansas State
Age (On Draft Day) 21.99
Height 6-4
Weight 255
Arm Length 33.5
Hand Size 9.875
Age Percentile 88.95
MSA Percentile 91.83
Solo Tackle Market Share 74.87
Sack Market Share 93.47
TFL Market Share 97.24
Explosive Lower Body Strength Score 91.11
Speed Score 96.23
Flexibility Score 97.07
Short Shuttle (SS) 4.28
3-Cone 6.85
Bench

 

Prospect CHECKLIST

Yes Hit Multiple All-Pro Age Percentile: 81 or Higher 100% of Multiple All-Pro Edge Rushers Since the 1996 NFL Draft Class were in the 81 Percentile or Higher of age ranked from youngest to oldest
Yes Hit Multiple All-Pro Age Percentile: 64 or Higher 100% of Multiple Pro Bowl Edge Rushers Since the 1996 NFL Draft Class were in the 64 Percentile or Higher of age ranked from youngest to oldest
Yes Hit All-Pro Market Share MSA Percentile: 76 or Higher 100% of Multiple All-Pro and Pro Bowl Edge Rushers since the 1996 NFL Draft Class were in the 76 Percentile or Higher of MSA
Yes Long-term Starter MSA Percentile: 50 or Higher 78% of 64 Start or more Edge Rushers since the 1996 NFL Draft Class were in the 50 Percentile or higher of MSA
No All-Pro Solo Tackle Market Share Score: 80 or Higher 100% of multiple All-Pro Edge Rushers since the 1989 NFL Draft class had a solo tackle market share score of 80 or higher
Yes Pro Bowl Solo Tackle Market Share Score: 55 or Higher 100% of multiple Pro Bowl Edge Rushers since the 1989 NFL Draft class had a solo tackle market share score of 55 or higher
Yes All-Pro Sack Market Share Score: 84.67 or Higher 100% of multiple All-Pro Edge Rushers since the 1989 NFL Draft class had a sack market share score of 84.67 or higher
Yes Pro Bowl Sack Market Share Score: 67.08 or Higher 80% of multiple Pro Bowl Edge Rushers since the 1989 NFL Draft class had a sack market share score of 67.08 or higher
Yes All-Pro TFL Market Share Score: 78.14 or Higher 100% of multiple All-Pro Edge Rushers since the 1989 NFL Draft class had a TFL market share score of 78.14 or Higher
Yes Pro Bowl TFL Market Share Score: 57.66 or Higher 80% of multiple Pro Bowl Edge Rushers since the 1989 NFL Draft class had a TFL market share score of 57.66 or higher
Yes  All-Pro Height: 6-4 or Taller 100% of Multiple All-Pro Edge Rushers since the 1996 NFL Draft Class were 6-4 or Taller
Yes Pro Bowl Height: 5-11 or Taller 100% of Multiple Pro Bowl Edge Rushers since the 1996 NFL Draft Class were 5-11 or Taller
Yes All-Pro and Pro Bowl Arm Length: 32’’ or Longer 100% of multiple All-Pro and Pro Bowl Edge Rushers since the 1996 NFL Draft class had 32’’ or longer Arm Length
Yes All-Pro and Pro Bowl Hand Size: 8 7/8’’ or Bigger 100% of Multiple All-Pro and Pro Bowl Edge Rushers since the 1996 NFL Draft class had 8 7/8’’ or Bigger
Yes All-Pro Explosive Lower Body Strength Score: 57.50 or higher 100% of Multiple All-Pro Edge Rushers since the 1998 NFL Draft Class had an explosive lower body strength score of 57.50 or higher
Yes Pro Bowl Explosive Lower Body Strength Score: 30.89 or higher 100% of Multiple Pro Bowl Edge Rushers since the 1998 NFL Draft Class had an explosive lower body strength score of 30.89 or higher
Yes Starter Explosive Lower Body Strength Score: 7.89 or higher 100% of 64 start or more Edge Rushers since the 1998 NFL Draft Class had an explosive lower body strength score of 7.89 or higher
Yes All-Pro Speed Score: 71.18 or higher 100% of Multiple All-Pro Edge Rushers since the 1998 NFL Draft Class had a speed score of 71.18 or higher
Yes Pro Bowl Speed Score: 57.58 or higher 100% of Multiple Pro Bowl Edge Rushers since the 1998 NFL Draft Class had a speed score of 57.58 or higher
Yes Starter Speed Score: 17.84 or higher 100% of 64 Start or more Edge Rushers since the 1998 NFL Draft Class had a speed score of 17.84 or higher
Yes All-Pro Flexibility Score: 76.70 100% of Multiple All-Pro Edge Rushers since the 1998 NFL Draft Class had a flexibility score of 76.70 or higher
Yes Pro Bowl Flexibility Score: 69.87 or higher 91% Multiple Pro Bowl Edge Rushers since the 1998 NFL Draft Class had a flexibility score of 69.87 or higher
Yes Starter Flexibility Score: 6.07 or higher 100% of 64 Start or more Edge Rushers since the 1998 NFL Draft Class had a flexibility score of 6.07 or higher
Yes All-Pro SS: 4.34 or Lower 100% of multiple All-Pro Edge Rushers since the 1998 NFL Draft Class had a Short Shuttle of 4.34 or >
Yes Pro Bowl SS: 4.47 or Lower 100% of multiple Pro Bowl Edge Rushers since the 1998 NFL Draft Class had a Short Shuttle of 4.47 or >
Yes All-Pro 3-Cone: 7.11 or Lower 100% of multiple All-Pro Edge Rushers since 1998 NFL Draft Class had a 3-Cone of 7.11 or >
Yes Pro Bowl 3-Cone: 7.37 or Lower 100% of multiple Pro Bowl Edge Rushers since the 1998 NFL Draft Class had a 3-Cone of 7.11 or >
DNP Starter Bench: 13 or More 100% of multiple 64 Start or more Edge Rushers since 1998 had at least 13 reps on the bench

*MSA Rating: The average score of a prospect’s market share production, strength of schedule and age percentile scores

*Explosive Lower Body Strength Score: A score formulated from a prospect’s vertical, broad jump and mass density measured against all his positional peers since 1998.

*Speed Score: A score formulated from a prospect’s 40-yard dash and mass density measured against all his positional peers since 1998.

*Flexibility Score: A score formulated from a prospect’s short shuttle, 3-Cone and mass density measured against all his positional peers since 1998.

 

Metric Analysis: Every indicator in Jordan Willis’ profile point toward multiple All-Pro potential. Except for his solo tackle market share score. And while there is still pushback against Jordan Willis from the “film” crowd. This is an extremely strong profile indicating at the very least a multiple Pro Bowl caliber player. You don’t have to like him, some didn’t like Vic Beasley either.

However, Willis has the type of athletic ability that will be a mismatch on most NFL offensive lines. His explosiveness alone can beat many NFL offensive tackles off the snap. He may never be a consistently elite edge rusher. But many film evaluators may be over thinking Mr. Willis. Or at the very least, they over think the Edge position a lot more than they realize.

ATH Comp: Vic Beasley

 

 

2017 NFL Draft Analytics Profile: Carlos Henderson

2017 Combine Prospect Profiles  

Carlos Henderson

Wide Receiver

Team Louisiana Tech
Age (On Draft Day) 22.36
Height 5-11
Weight 199
Arm Length 31.375
Hand Size 9.125
Age Percentile 73.59
Production Percentile 72.22
SOS Percentile 16.54
MSA Rating 52.92
Explosive Lower Body Strength Percentile 83.57
Speed Percentile 80.19
Flexibility Percentile 40.41

 

Prospect CHECKLIST

No All-Pro Age Percentile 80 or Higher 90% of Multiple All-Pro WRs since the 1985 NFL Draft Class were in the 80 Percentile or Higher ranked from youngest to oldest
Yes Pro Bowl Age Percentile 51 or Higher 91% of Multiple Pro Bowl WRs since the 1985 NFL Draft Class were in the 54 Percentile or >
No 5-Time All-Pro Market Share Production Percentile: 85 or Higher 100% of 5-Time All-Pro WRs since the 1969 NFL Draft Class were in the 85 Percentile or Higher
No 3-Time All-Pro Market Share Production Percentile: 80 or Higher 95% of 3-Time All-Pro WRs since the 1969 NFL Draft Class were in the 80 Percentile or >
Yes 3-Time Pro Bowl Market Share Production Percentile: 68 or Higher 100% of 3-Time Pro Bowl WRs since the 1969 NFL Draft Class were in the 68 Percentile or >
Yes Long-term Starter Market Share Production Percentile: 58 or Higher 95% of all Long-term Starting WRs since the 1969 NFL Draft Class were in the 58 Percentile or >
No All-Pro MSA Rating: 79 or Higher 87% of Multiple All-Pro WRs since the 1969 NFL Draft Class were in the 79 Percentile of MSA or >
No  Pro Bowl MSA Rating: 71 or Higher 88% of Multiple Pro Bowl WRs since the 1969 NFL Draft Class were in the 71 Percentile or >
N/A 6-2 or Taller Arm Length: 32 5/8-Inches 80% of Multiple All-Pro and Pro Bowl WRs at 6-2 or Taller had at least 32 5/8-Inch Arm Length since 1999 NFL Draft Class
Yes 6-1 or Shorter Arm Length: 29 3/4-Inches 100% of Multiple All-Pro and Pro Bowl WRs at 6-1 or Shorter had at least 29 3/4-Inch Arm Length since 1999 NFL Draft Class
Yes 8 7/8-Inch Hand Size 100% of Multiple All-Pro and Pro Bowl WRs had at least 8 7/8-Inch Hand Size since 1999 NFL Draft Class
Yes 5-9 or Taller 100% of Multiple All-Pro and Pro Bowl WRs were at least 5-9 or Taller since the 1999 NFL Draft Class
Yes Explosive Lower Body Strength Score: 7.19 or higher 100% of Multiple All-Pro and Pro Bowl WRs since 1999 had an explosive lower body strength score of 7.19 or higher
Yes Speed Score: 24.75 or higher 100% of Multiple All-Pro and Pro Bowl WRs since 1999 had a speed score of 24.75 or higher
Yes Flexibility Score: 9.39 or higher 100% of Multiple All-Pro and Pro Bowl WRs since 1999 had a flexibility score of 9.39 or higher
Yes Athleticism Score: 54.16 or higher 94% of Multiple All-Pro and Pro Bowl WRs since 1999 had at least one athleticism score (explosive lower body, speed, or flexibility) of 54.16 or higher.

*Explosive Lower Body Strength Score: A score formulated from a prospect’s vertical, broad jump and mass density measured against all his positional peers since 1998.

*Speed Score: A score formulated from a prospect’s 40-yard dash and mass density measured against all his positional peers since 1998.

*Flexibility Score: A score formulated from a prospect’s short shuttle, 3-Cone and mass density measured against all his positional peers since 1998.

Metric Analysis: Carlos Henderson has a very solid profile. Above average explosiveness, speed, and solid production. The only concerns are level of competition and flexibility. He played one of the weakest strength of schedules since 1969. And didn’t put up a dominate market share production season despite that schedule.

And with athleticism traits like Limas Sweed and Justin Hunter from a flexibility standpoint. There are plenty of concerns to consider that Henderson can be good, but not great. A player who looked excellent against weak competition. But could disappoint once he makes the transition to the NFL.

2017 NFL Draft Analytics Profile: Kevin King

2017 Combine Prospect Profiles  

Kevin King

Cornerback

Team Washington
Age (On Draft Day) 21.97
Height 6-3
Weight 200
Arm Length 32
Hand Size 9.5
Age Percentile 87.46
MSA Percentile 96.68
Solo Tackle MS Score 56.70
PD MS Score 96.70
Explosive Lower Body Strength Score 53.85
Speed Score 72.82
Flexibility Score 98.86
Bench 11
Metric Score 81%
ATH Comp Stepfon Gilmore

 

Prospect CHECKLIST

No All-Pro Age Percentile: 91 or higher 100% of Multiple All-Pro CBs Since the 1998 NFL Draft Class were in the 91 Percentile or higher of age ranked from youngest to oldest
Yes Pro Bowl Age Percentile: 78 or higher 100% of Multiple All-Pro CBs Since the 1998 NFL Draft Class were in the 78 Percentile or higher of age ranked from youngest to oldest
Yes All-Pro MSA Percentile: 78 or higher 100% of Multiple All-Pro CBs since the 1989 NFL Draft Class were in the 78 Percentile or higher of MSA
Yes Long-term Starter MSA Percentile: 50 or higher 91% of 64 Start or More Starters Since the 1989 NFL Draft Class were in the 50 or > in MSA
No All-Pro Solo Tackle Market Share Score: 61.10 or Higher 100% of Multiple All-Pro CBs since the 1989 NFL Draft Class had a solo tackle market share score of 61.10 or higher
Yes Pro Bowl Solo Tackle Market Share Score: 34.87 or Higher 100% of Multiple Pro Bowl CBs since the 1989 NFL Draft Class had a solo tackle market share score of 34.87 or higher
Yes All-Pro and Pro Bowl PD Market Share Score: 77.18 or Higher 87% of Multiple All-Pro and Pro Bowl CBs since the 1989 NFL Draft Class had a PD score of 77.18 or higher
Yes All-Pro Height: 5-11 or taller 100% of Multiple All-Pro CBs since the 1998 NFL Draft Class were at least 5-11 or taller
Yes Pro Bowl Height: 5-9 or taller 100% of Multiple Pro Bowl CBs since the 1998 NFL Draft Class were at least 5-9 or taller
Yes All-Pro Arm Length: 32’’ or longer 100% of Multiple All-Pro CBs since the 1998 NFL Draft Class had 32’’ or longer Arm Length
Yes Pro Bowl Arm Length: 30’’ or longer 100% of Multiple Pro Bowl CBs since the 1998 NFL Draft Class had 30’’ or longer Arm Length
Yes All-Pro and Pro Bowl Hand Size: 8 7/8-Inches 100% of Multiple All-Pro and Pro Bowl CBs since the 1998 NFL Draft Class had at least 8 7/8-Inch Hand Size
No All-Pro Explosive Lower Body Strength Score: 76.02 or higher 83% of multiple All-Pro CBs since the 1998 NFL Draft class had an explosive lower body strength score of 76.02 or higher
Yes Pro Bowl Explosive Lower Body Strength Score: 38.5 or higher 85% of multiple Pro Bowl CBs since the 1998 NFL Draft class had an explosive lower body strength score of 38.5 or higher
Yes Starter Explosive Lower Body Strength Score: 15.02 or higher 100% of 64 start or more CBs since the 1998 NFL Draft class had an explosive lower body strength score of 15.02 or higher
No All-Pro Speed Score: 88.25 or higher 100% of multiple All-Pro CBs since the 1998 NFL Draft class had a speed score of 88.25 or higher
Yes Pro Bowl Speed Score: 61.99 or higher 75% of multiple Pro Bowl CBs since the 1998 NFL Draft class had a speed score of 61.99 or higher
Yes Starter Speed Score: 3.08 or higher 100% of 64 start or more CBs since the 1998 NFL Draft class had a speed score of 3.08 or higher
Yes All-Pro Flexibility Score: 76.41 or higher 100% of multiple All-Pro CBs since the 1998 NFL Draft class had a flexibility score of 76.41 or higher
Yes Pro Bowl Flexibility Score: 61.19 or higher 85% of multiple Pro Bowl CBs since the 1998 NFL Draft class had a flexibility score of 61.19 or higher
Yes Starter Flexibility Score: 27.36 or higher 100% of 64 start or more CBs since the 1998 NFL Draft class had a flexibility score of 27.36 or higher
Yes Starter Bench Reps: 4 reps or more 100% of 64 start or more CBs since the 1998 NFL Draft class had at least 4 reps on the bench press

*MSA Rating: The average score of a prospect’s market share production, strength of schedule and age percentile scores

*Explosive Lower Body Strength Score: A score formulated from a prospect’s vertical, broad jump and mass density measured against all his positional peers since 1998.

*Speed Score: A score formulated from a prospect’s 40-yard dash and mass density measured against all his positional peers since 1998.

*Flexibility Score: A score formulated from a prospect’s short shuttle, 3-Cone and mass density measured against all his positional peers since 1998.

Metric Analysis: Kevin King hits all the numbers indicative of a multiple Pro Bowl cornerback. However, scheme will be crucial as he has average explosiveness. He’s a player who with his elite flexibility can become a dominant press corner. But you want to make sure he’s working on wide receivers in close quarters vs. having him explode to the ball in space. How a defensive coordinator schemes him up will be crucial, but in the right system he can be a star.

2017 NFL Scouting Combine: DS Athleticism Analysis

We are finally here, with the safety group at the Combine. And there were a lot of very good safety athletes. The big standouts as strong safety types were Obi Melifonwu and Josh Jones. Both safeties I’ve talked about for awhile now, but with no agility drills, it’s hard to determine their ultimate picture as athletes. But enjoy the chart, and don’t go too crazy over the athletic comps. It’s just who they resemble as an athlete, not as important as production and film.

This concludes the Combine athleticism analysis. I will have a complete examination of the RB group published on Amazon soon that will go over all the data and what to expect from each prospect in the future. And I will publish a few teaser reports on my blog while updating Pro Day data. This is just the beginning. So if you like my work or want to know more about my work follow me on twitter @Jimetrics , or shoot an email to james_cobern@yahoo.com.

Free Agency is here as while. So expect reports on how that turns out as well.

 

2017 NFL Scouting Combine: CB Athleticism Analysis

This has been a fantastic Combine when it comes to edge rusher and linebacker depth. And I think we can add corner to it as well. The biggest standouts of the day were Chidobe Awuzie, Fabian Moreau and Jalen Myrick. Only one of them is Awuzie is someone I’m a big fan of. But if you are a fan of press man corners, this class is filled with them.

With the best perhaps in Kevin King who tested almost exactly like Stephon Gilmore. I will need to digest these numbers a bit more in the coming months. But so far this is the chart for cornerbacks who tested at the Combine.

I will have another post on the safety group, and then I will begin the long process of going through each player’s data profile.

2017 NFL Scouting Combine: LB Athleticism Analysis

The LBs at the Combine this year performed better than in the past, but it was still a bit disappointing. Players like Zach Cunningham, Raekwon McMillan and Anthony Walker Jr. proved they have starting NFL athleticism. However, the big name from this week was Ohio’s Blair Brown. I really enjoyed his film before the Combine. And I expect a fast riser, because his athleticism is on film.

lb-chart-data

Players like Connor Harris and Duke Riley had great days. But there are a few variables in their profiles that I will highlight in the future as potential red flags with them. Not a bad day for the LB group. However, too much hyperbole on some guys who hit certain marks and missed on others.

 

2017 NFL Scouting Combine: Edge Athleticism Analysis

The 2017 NFL Edge class is loaded, but it’s not the players you are accustomed to. Tim Williams, Takkarist McKinley and Carl Lawson posted question marks. While Myles Garrett, Jordan Willis, T.J. Watt, Haason Reddick, Tyus Bowzer, Soloman Thomas, Tarell Basham and Trey Hendrickson offer up some elite athleticism traits. Out of those guys, Garrett, Watt, Reddick, Thomas have legit first-round potential. While Bowzer, Basham and Hendrickson can be great value adds in Day 2 to Day 3.

de-chart-ath

Overall though, there is a lot of value here at Edge. I will be writing up multiple profiles explaining all the ins and out of their complete profiles. Including production, physical attributes and athleticism. But for right now, it’s clear who is a potential star and who is not. I already had questions about Lawson McKinley and Williams on film.

And this just adds more ammunition to explain why. So take tuned for my LB athleticism chart later today. And happy Monday.

2017 NFL Scouting Combine: DT Athleticism Analysis

The Edge Rushers in this class were very impressive in terms of testing at the combine, but the defensive tackles were largely a disappoint. And one thing I believe people need to understand is that when a player drops on my board. It usually is not due to me putting a player from the same position over them due to testing. As much as players at another position presented more value based on their testing. In which case I foresee a lot of other players from other positions being slid ahead of a lot of these defensive tackles.

athletic-comps

The defensive tackle group were:

  1. Larry Ogunjobi
  2. Elijah Qualls
  3. D.J. Jones
  4. Soloman Thomas
  5. Charles Walker
  6. Eddie Vanderdoes

Only half of those defensive tackles have no major questions about their production, or film.  While a player in Jonathan Allen and Jaleel Johnson who I’m a big fan put up average NFL starting ability. But in general there were a lot of red to yellow flags. Even Malik McDowell has a shot at being a flash in the pan type defensive tackle like Marcus Stroud. But I just feel a bit uneasy with this defensive tackle group now.

I only view Soloman Thomas as a legit top 10 prospect. While Johnson and Allen will likely fall as other positional players who have shown more long-term value pop up. It will be interesting to see how the NFL reacts to this new information. But as of right now, I see believe this defensive tackle class has been a little too overhyped.

2017 NFL Scouting Combine: TE Athleticism Analysis

Tight end is all about speed when it comes to the statistically most relevant time at the Combine. And this Combine was the most satisfying when it comes to hitting that speed mark. The majority of the tight ends at the Combine hit a very high speed score, adding to the argument that as much as some call the running back group historic. This tight end group might be a generational class. But before I get ahead of myself here is the tight end chart.

te-chart

The tight ends to hit every minimum All-Pro and Pro Bowl athletic trait are as follows:

  1. Adam Sheehan
  2. Bucky Hodges
  3. Darrell Daniels
  4. David Njoku
  5. Evan Engram
  6. Jonnu Smith

Which brings us to O.J. Howard. Howard passed the speed and flexibility thresholds, but he didn’t pass the explosiveness testing for an All-Pro or Pro Bowl player. This doesn’t mean Howard will be a bust. However, it calls into question if we are overhyping him a bit as a generational tight end. Especially when you add his below average market share production at Alabama. He can improve his vertical and broad jump at his Pro Day.

But at least what I’m saying is I was skeptical that O.J. Howard was a good, but not great player before the Combine due to his lack of explosiveness. And his testing is starting to show my concerns. He’s going to be a good player. However, he just doesn’t have the combination of metric traits that multiple All-Pro and Pro Bowl players had going as far back as 1963. This is why you should temper your expectations for him at the next level.

There is enough doubt from film, his production and testing to say taking him in the top 10 of the draft over many other outstanding players is ill advised. Especially when you have other tight ends with better traits and are less murky projections. Howard is going to be a good tight end in the NFL. But there is a lot of data contradicting the claim that he is the best tight end in the class.

This concludes the tight end group. I will be waiting on the DL and LB group numbers to trickle out of Indy. And I will probably not post again until the agility scores are leaked for those guys tomorrow.

2017 NFL Scouting Combine: WR Athleticism Analysis

Wide receiver is another one of the misunderstood positions at the Combine, because it’s not about having a Calvin Johnsonesque performance. As much as having at least one above average athleticism trait. The vast majority of consistently elite wide receivers in the NFL had at least one above average athletic trait with only a few exceptions. Following this line of thinking would have put Wes Welker, Antonio Brown and many other wide receivers on your radar versus throwing them into the trash can after putting up a few below average traits. Wide receivers can win in a variety of ways and we need to start thinking about which prospects maximize their athleticism on tape.

And which ones don’t. So here is the chart for wide receiver scores in explosiveness, speed and flexibility.

wr-scores

The players who put up 90 percentile or higher athleticism scores were:

  1. Chris Godwin
  2. Curtis Samuel
  3. Jerome Lane
  4. John Ross
  5. Krishawn Hogan
  6. Robert Davis
  7. Speedy Noil
  8. Taywan Taylor
  9. Zach Pascal
  10. Zay Jones

These are players who have athletic traits that if they have the skill and a smart offensive coordinator can be matchup nightmares to the majority of NFL defenses.

And the same goes for the wide receivers who hit 80 percentile or higher athletic traits in:

  1. Amara Darboh
  2. Ardarius Stewart
  3. Bug Howard
  4. Carlos Henderson
  5. Chad Hansen
  6. Cooper Kupp
  7. Fred Ross
  8. Isaiah McKenzie
  9. Jehu Chesson
  10. Josh Malone
  11. Malachi Dupre
  12. Quincy Adeboyejo
  13. Ryan Switzer

In addition to many others who had at least one above average athleticism trait. So I will go back to crunching numbers with the tight end position. And I will post those results later today.