Tennessee Titans vs. Cleveland Browns NFL Week 7 Analytics Preview

Welcome to another week of NFL football. Now let’s get to who the data favors between the Cleveland Browns and Tennessee Titans based on analytics.

And if you are new to the site, a glossary of terms are here.

Overall Data Favors: Tennessee Titans due to offense and special teams.

Overall Completion Data Favors: Titans’ Defense

Overall Completion Data Favors: Titans’ Offense

Rushing 1st Down Conversion Data Favors: Browns’ rushing offense

Rushing 1st Down Conversion Data Favors: Browns’ rushing defense

Passing 1st Down Conversion Data Favors: Browns’ passing offense except for 3rd down

Passing 1st Down Conversion Data Favors: Titans’ passing offense

Sack Rate on Various Downs Favors: Browns’ offense

Sack Rate on Various Downs Favors: Titans’ offense

Interception Rate on Various Downs Favors: Browns’ defense

Interception Rate on Various Downs Favors: Browns’ defense

 

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Midseason Offensive and Defensive Market Share Data Collection

Here is a spreadsheet with offensive and defensive market share of 2017 CFB players at the midseason point 2018 Prebowl stats. I did a quick color code to give you an idea of what the production means potential wise. However, there are numerous other variables that are not accounted for yet like SOS, athleticism and age. This is purely production, but it should highlight players that are performing well so you can check them out to see if the film lines up with the data. I’d use the analogy that if a player hits a All-Pro potential mark, it means the same as if a DE runs a 4.5.

It doesn’t mean that DE is destined to become elite, or even good. But since most of the great DEs usually run 4.5, it’d be a good idea to at least give that player a look. There are over 4,000+ players in this defensive data set alone. So the ability to filter that 4,000+ list to less than 300 is the point of analytics.  So I hope you enjoy the spreadsheet, and if you have any questions feel free to leave a comment or tweet at me @Jimetrics .

San Francisco 49ers vs. Indianapolis Colts NFL Week 5 Analytics Preview

Welcome to NFL Week 5. Now let’s get to who the data favors in the San Francisco 49ers vs. Indianapolis Colts matchup.

And if you are new to my work a glossary of terms can be found here.

Overall NFL Data Favors: Colts due to defensive strengths.

Overall Completion Data Favors: Colts Offense 

Overall Completion Data Favors: 49ers Defense. 

Overall Rushing First-Down Conversion Rate Data Favors: 49ers defense except for massive disparity on 3rd Down.

Overall Rushing First-Down Conversion Rate Data Favors: Colts Defense

Overall Passing First-Down Conversion Rate Data Favors: 49ers Defense 

Overall Passing First-Down Conversion Rate Data Favors: Colts Defense

Sack Rate Data Favors: 49ers Defense

Sack Rate Data Favors: 49ers Offense

Interception Rate Data Favors: 49ers Defense, but there is a decent disparity on 2nd Down favoring Colts.

Interception Rate Data Favors: Colts Defense massively

Overall Impression: The data favors the Colts, but there is not a massive difference between these two teams. This is a winnable game for the 49ers. However, the Colts’ defense has shown to be at least average. And the ability to create interceptions that can change the tide of games is high for the Colts as well. Thus I’d side with a victory for the Colts. 

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns NFL Week 4 Analytics Preview

Hello and welcome to another fine week of NFL football with a preview of the Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns game based on analytics.

If you are new to my work, the link to a glossary of terms is here.

 

Overall Data Favors: Bengals due to defense advantages.

Overall Completion Data Favors: Bengals over Browns D except for 3rd Down situations. 

Overall Completion Data Favors: Bengals over Browns offense. 

Rushing 1st Down Conversion Data Favors: Browns over Bengals offense.

Rushing 1st Down Conversion Data Favors: Browns over Bengals defense except for 3rd Down situations. 

Passing 1st Down Conversion Data Favors: Bengals over Browns defense except for 2nd Down situations. 

Passing 1st Down Conversion Data Favors: Bengals defense

Sack Rate on Various Downs Favors: Browns defense except for 2nd Down situations.

Sack Rate on Various Downs Favors: Bengals’ defense overwhelmingly. 

Interception Rate on Various Downs Favors: Bengals offense except for 3rd downs and especially 3rd and long. 

Interception Rate on Various Downs Favors: Bengals defense overwhelmingly. 

 

Martavis Bryant NFL Analytics Profile

Analytics Profile

Martavis Bryant

Wide Receiver

Team Clemson
Age (On Draft Day) 22.4
Height 6-4
Weight 211
Arm Length 32.625
Hand Size 9.5
Age Percentile 71.69
Production Percentile 44.51
Explosive Lower Body Strength Percentile 85.55
Speed Percentile 88.31
Flexibility Percentile 62.36
Best NFL Production Score 71.14
Three-year NFL production average N/A

 

Prospect CHECKLIST

 No All-Pro Age Percentile 80 or Higher 90% of Multiple All-Pro WRs since the 1985 NFL Draft Class were in the 80 Percentile or Higher ranked from youngest to oldest
 Yes Pro Bowl Age Percentile 51 or Higher 91% of Multiple Pro Bowl WRs since the 1985 NFL Draft Class were in the 54 Percentile or >
 No 5-Time All-Pro Market Share Production Percentile: 85 or Higher 100% of 5-Time All-Pro WRs since the 1969 NFL Draft Class were in the 85 Percentile or Higher
 No 3-Time All-Pro Market Share Production Percentile: 80 or Higher 95% of 3-Time All-Pro WRs since the 1969 NFL Draft Class were in the 80 Percentile or >
 No 3-Time Pro Bowl Market Share Production Percentile: 68 or Higher 100% of 3-Time Pro Bowl WRs since the 1969 NFL Draft Class were in the 68 Percentile or >
 No Long-term Starter Market Share Production Percentile: 58 or Higher 95% of all Long-term Starting WRs since the 1969 NFL Draft Class were in the 58 Percentile or >
 Yes 6-2 or Taller Arm Length: 32 5/8-Inches 100% of Multiple All-Pro and Pro Bowl WRs at 6-2 or Taller had at least 32 5/8-Inch Arm Length since 1999 NFL Draft Class
 N/A 6-1 or Shorter Arm Length: 29 3/4-Inches 100% of Multiple All-Pro and Pro Bowl WRs at 6-1 or Shorter had at least 29 3/4-Inch Arm Length since 1999 NFL Draft Class
 Yes 8 7/8-Inch Hand Size 100% of Multiple All-Pro and Pro Bowl WRs had at least 8 7/8-Inch Hand Size since 1999 NFL Draft Class
 Yes 5-9 or Taller 100% of Multiple All-Pro and Pro Bowl WRs were at least 5-9 or Taller since the 1999 NFL Draft Class
 Yes Explosive Lower Body Strength Score: 7.19 or higher 100% of Multiple All-Pro and Pro Bowl WRs since 1999 had an explosive lower body strength score of 7.19 or higher
 Yes Speed Score: 24.75 or higher 100% of Multiple All-Pro and Pro Bowl WRs since 1999 had a speed score of 24.75 or higher
 Yes Flexibility Score: 9.39 or higher 100% of Multiple All-Pro and Pro Bowl WRs since 1999 had a flexibility score of 9.39 or higher
 Yes Athleticism Score: 54.16 or higher 94% of Multiple All-Pro and Pro Bowl WRs since 1999 had at least one athleticism score (explosive lower body, speed, or flexibility) of 54.16 or higher.

*Explosive Lower Body Strength Score: A score formulated from a prospect’s vertical, broad jump and mass density measured against all his positional peers since 1998.

*Speed Score: A score formulated from a prospect’s 40-yard dash and mass density measured against all his positional peers since 1998.

*Flexibility Score: A score formulated from a prospect’s short shuttle, 3-Cone and mass density measured against all his positional peers since 1998.

 

Metric Analysis: Martavis Bryant is the embodiment of fool’s gold based on his analytics. He has great athleticism traits with size that most drool over. But he has never from college to the NFL proven himself as a guy who can command elite production ever. Based on his production score, there have been very few starters let alone high quality producers since the 1969 NFL draft class. And I would move on from Bryant.

He’s not Randy Moss, because Moss immediately put up elite production from his rookie season. While Bryant after three years is still trying to string together at least one full season of production. My advice, look elsewhere. Because he has been living up to his mediocre production analytics from day one. Fool’s gold is all you’ll find here.

 

Chris Conley Analytics Profile

2015 NFL Draft Profiles

Chris Conley

Wide Receiver

Team Georgia
Age (On Draft Day) 22.53
Height 6-2
Weight 213
Arm Length 33.75
Hand Size 9.875
Age Percentile 66.98
Production Percentile 65.66
Explosive Lower Body Strength Percentile 99.86
Speed Percentile 97.78
Flexibility Percentile 75.73
Best NFL Production Score 65.72
Two-year NFL production average 54.72

 

Prospect CHECKLIST

 No All-Pro Age Percentile 80 or Higher 90% of Multiple All-Pro WRs since the 1985 NFL Draft Class were in the 80 Percentile or Higher ranked from youngest to oldest
 Yes Pro Bowl Age Percentile 51 or Higher 91% of Multiple Pro Bowl WRs since the 1985 NFL Draft Class were in the 54 Percentile or >
 No 5-Time All-Pro Market Share Production Percentile: 85 or Higher 100% of 5-Time All-Pro WRs since the 1969 NFL Draft Class were in the 85 Percentile or Higher
 No 3-Time All-Pro Market Share Production Percentile: 80 or Higher 95% of 3-Time All-Pro WRs since the 1969 NFL Draft Class were in the 80 Percentile or >
 No 3-Time Pro Bowl Market Share Production Percentile: 68 or Higher 100% of 3-Time Pro Bowl WRs since the 1969 NFL Draft Class were in the 68 Percentile or >
 Yes Long-term Starter Market Share Production Percentile: 58 or Higher 95% of all Long-term Starting WRs since the 1969 NFL Draft Class were in the 58 Percentile or >
 Yes 6-2 or Taller Arm Length: 32 5/8-Inches 100% of Multiple All-Pro and Pro Bowl WRs at 6-2 or Taller had at least 32 5/8-Inch Arm Length since 1999 NFL Draft Class
 N/A 6-1 or Shorter Arm Length: 29 3/4-Inches 100% of Multiple All-Pro and Pro Bowl WRs at 6-1 or Shorter had at least 29 3/4-Inch Arm Length since 1999 NFL Draft Class
 Yes 8 7/8-Inch Hand Size 100% of Multiple All-Pro and Pro Bowl WRs had at least 8 7/8-Inch Hand Size since 1999 NFL Draft Class
 Yes 5-9 or Taller 100% of Multiple All-Pro and Pro Bowl WRs were at least 5-9 or Taller since the 1999 NFL Draft Class
 Yes Explosive Lower Body Strength Score: 7.19 or higher 100% of Multiple All-Pro and Pro Bowl WRs since 1999 had an explosive lower body strength score of 7.19 or higher
 Yes Speed Score: 24.75 or higher 100% of Multiple All-Pro and Pro Bowl WRs since 1999 had a speed score of 24.75 or higher
 Yes Flexibility Score: 9.39 or higher 100% of Multiple All-Pro and Pro Bowl WRs since 1999 had a flexibility score of 9.39 or higher
 Yes Athleticism Score: 54.16 or higher 94% of Multiple All-Pro and Pro Bowl WRs since 1999 had at least one athleticism score (explosive lower body, speed, or flexibility) of 54.16 or higher.

*Explosive Lower Body Strength Score: A score formulated from a prospect’s vertical, broad jump and mass density measured against all his positional peers since 1998.

*Speed Score: A score formulated from a prospect’s 40-yard dash and mass density measured against all his positional peers since 1998.

*Flexibility Score: A score formulated from a prospect’s short shuttle, 3-Cone and mass density measured against all his positional peers since 1998.

Metric Outlook: Chris Conley is no doubt an impressive athlete with elite explosiveness and speed for his size. But with only starter level production thresholds from college. The likelihood that he lives up to his athletic gifts into a elite to near elite NFL producer is highly unlikely. Some have pointed to the cut of Jeremy Maclin that the team wants Conley to fill his void. But I’d expect Conley to only develop into a adequate spot starter than have an impressive 2017 breakout.

He’s a flavor of the month. But a flavor that is more Darrius Heyward-Bey than future Andre Johnson.

 

2017 NFL Free Agency Profile: Jeremy Maclin

2017 Free Agency Profiles

Jeremy Maclin

Wide Receiver

Team Missouri
Age (On Draft Day) 20.97
Height 6-1
Weight 198
Arm Length 32.25
Hand Size 9.25
Age Percentile 98.57
Production Percentile 68.61
Explosive Lower Body Strength Percentile 50.21
Speed Percentile 71.26
Flexibility Percentile 49.66
Best NFL Production Score 95.66
Three-year NFL production average 84.90

 

Prospect CHECKLIST

 Yes All-Pro Age Percentile 80 or Higher 90% of Multiple All-Pro WRs since the 1985 NFL Draft Class were in the 80 Percentile or Higher ranked from youngest to oldest
 Yes Pro Bowl Age Percentile 51 or Higher 91% of Multiple Pro Bowl WRs since the 1985 NFL Draft Class were in the 54 Percentile or >
 No 5-Time All-Pro Market Share Production Percentile: 85 or Higher 100% of 5-Time All-Pro WRs since the 1969 NFL Draft Class were in the 85 Percentile or Higher
 No 3-Time All-Pro Market Share Production Percentile: 80 or Higher 95% of 3-Time All-Pro WRs since the 1969 NFL Draft Class were in the 80 Percentile or >
 Yes 3-Time Pro Bowl Market Share Production Percentile: 68 or Higher 100% of 3-Time Pro Bowl WRs since the 1969 NFL Draft Class were in the 68 Percentile or >
 Yes Long-term Starter Market Share Production Percentile: 58 or Higher 95% of all Long-term Starting WRs since the 1969 NFL Draft Class were in the 58 Percentile or >
 N/A 6-2 or Taller Arm Length: 32 5/8-Inches 100% of Multiple All-Pro and Pro Bowl WRs at 6-2 or Taller had at least 32 5/8-Inch Arm Length since 1999 NFL Draft Class
 Yes 6-1 or Shorter Arm Length: 29 3/4-Inches 100% of Multiple All-Pro and Pro Bowl WRs at 6-1 or Shorter had at least 29 3/4-Inch Arm Length since 1999 NFL Draft Class
 Yes 8 7/8-Inch Hand Size 100% of Multiple All-Pro and Pro Bowl WRs had at least 8 7/8-Inch Hand Size since 1999 NFL Draft Class
 Yes 5-9 or Taller 100% of Multiple All-Pro and Pro Bowl WRs were at least 5-9 or Taller since the 1999 NFL Draft Class
 Yes Explosive Lower Body Strength Score: 7.19 or higher 100% of Multiple All-Pro and Pro Bowl WRs since 1999 had an explosive lower body strength score of 7.19 or higher
 Yes Speed Score: 24.75 or higher 100% of Multiple All-Pro and Pro Bowl WRs since 1999 had a speed score of 24.75 or higher
 Yes Flexibility Score: 9.39 or higher 100% of Multiple All-Pro and Pro Bowl WRs since 1999 had a flexibility score of 9.39 or higher
 Yes Athleticism Score: 54.16 or higher 94% of Multiple All-Pro and Pro Bowl WRs since 1999 had at least one athleticism score (explosive lower body, speed, or flexibility) of 54.16 or higher.

*Explosive Lower Body Strength Score: A score formulated from a prospect’s vertical, broad jump and mass density measured against all his positional peers since 1998.

*Speed Score: A score formulated from a prospect’s 40-yard dash and mass density measured against all his positional peers since 1998.

*Flexibility Score: A score formulated from a prospect’s short shuttle, 3-Cone and mass density measured against all his positional peers since 1998.

Metric Analysis: Jeremy Maclin is a unique player who has always been a more of a middle of the pack type of talent. But the fact he hit 90+ percentile production seasons back to back in 2014-15 is enough of a reason to buy for the right price. He has a injury history that most likely influenced the Chiefs’ decision to cut bait. He could be a valuable addition if he returns close to his 14-15 form. However, a floor of 5,000,000 a year to a ceiling of 11,250,000 should be the ball park in negotiations.