2017 NFL Draft Live Analysis Page: Day 1

Welcome to the 2017 NFL Draft live analysis page.  This page will go live thirty minutes before the NFL Draft at 7:30 P.M. Eastern. I will give my first initial thoughts and predictions. And I will update throughout the night with my impressions as the selections are made. With the main goal of giving some insight into what type of data/analytics if any were used in the selection, and how that may or may not pay off in the long-term. Be sure to check back to this page through the draft and have a nice Draft day.

Lastly, make sure you check out my 2017 NFL Draft Analytics guide here. Link is in the description. There are a lot of very talented data guys out there. But I promise you, none provide as in depth of an approach as I do. Combining all of the major facets of data evaluation including age, production, athleticism and physical characteristics backed by decades(not years) worth of evidence. The draft is already here, get your copy today.

Hello Everybody, welcome to the eve of the 2017 NFL Draft. Running a little late, but I’m here. Feel free to leave a comment if you have questions.

Cleveland Browns select: Myles Garrett, DE, Texas A&M

Key Points

90+ percentile explosiveness and speed.

Plus Julius Peppers like market share production and a similar physical profile to most elite pass rushers.

Great pick.

Chicago Bears trade up to select: Mitch Trubisky

Key Points

Hit both HS and College markers for a Pro Bowl quarterback.

Only one year of production at a relatively older age does not bode well from a historical perspective.

Questionable pick in terms of draft capital given up for.

San Francisco 49ers select:  Soloman Thomas

Key Points

Justin Houston level athlete.

Khalil Mack market share production against top competition.

Great pick

Jacksonville Jaguars select: Leonard Fournette

Similar profile to Demarco Murray with All-Pro production.

Lack of agility testing is concerning.

Good pick

Tennessee Titans select:  Corey Davis

Elite market share production, but did not dominate his level of competition the way Randy Moss did.

Lack of testing also hurts his projection.

Decent pick

New York Jets select:  Jamal Adams, DS, LSU

Key Points

Reggie Nelson level athlete

Good production, but lacks elite solo tackle market share indicating an elite strong safety. And lack elite pass deflection market share in terms of an elite free safety.

Decent pick

San Diego Chargers Select: Mike Williams, WR, Clemson

Averageish athlete in terms of explosiveness and speed

Hasn’t been a Pro Bowler with his market share production since the 1990s.

Poor pick

Carolina Panthers Select: Christian McCaffrey

All-Pro level production

Elite flexibility for his size

Below average arm length. Only RBs with as short of arms to become a long-term starter since 2002 NFL Draft class were Chris Johnson and C.J. Spiller.

Cincinnati Bengals select: John Ross

Elite speed with similar qualities to Santana Moss and Joey Galloway

3-Time Pro Bowl production

Injury history is concerning

Kansas City Chiefs select:  Patrick Mahomes

Pro Bowl level college production

High School production is concerning by not hitting starter level production.

However, with Andy Reid as his mentor. I can see Mahomes becoming a Donovan McNabb/Brett Favre like career.

Good pick.

New Orleans Saints select: Marshon Lattimore

Great explosiveness and elite speed

His market share production is not All-Pro level.

Lacks elite arm length.

Similar traits to Justin Gilbert due to skipping agility drills.

Poor pick

Houston Texans Select: Deshaun Watson

Best indicators of any quarterback in this class.

Elite college and high school production.

Great pick

Arizona Cardinals Select:  Haason Reddick, LB, Temple

Great athlete.

Pro Bowl level production for an Edge rusher.

Age is a concern in terms of All-Pro upside.

Good pick

Philadelphia Eagles Select: Derek Barnett, DE, Tennessee

Elite production against top competition

Similar profile to Terrell Suggs.

Lacks elite explosiveness and speed for his size to say he is risk free.

Indianapolis Colts Select: Malik Hooker

Very good production and age.

Did not test to judge athleticism.

Decent pick

Baltimore Ravens select:  Marlon Humphrey, CB, Alabama

Stanford Routt athleticism.

Lack elite level pass deflection market share.

Poor pick.

Washington Redskins Select: Jonathan Allen, DT, Alabama

Great overall production

Good, but not great athleticism traits.

Great pick

Tennessee Titans Select:  Adoree Jackson, CB, USC

Good athleticism and production.

Lacks elite length and size.

Good pick.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Select:  O.J. Howard, TE, Alabama

Pro Bowl level production.

Lacks elite explosiveness.

Decent pick

Denver Broncos Select: Garrett Bolles, OT/OG, Utah

Good athlete, but lack height profile of elite tackles.

Better fit inside.

Detroit Lions Select:  Jarrad Davis, LB, Florida

Above average explosiveness and speed

Did not hit All-Pro or Pro Bowl level production marks

Poor pick.

Miami Dolphins Select: Charles Harris, DE, Missouri

Poor athleticism profile.

Good production profile.

Poor pick.

New York Giants Select: Evan Engram

Great athleticism profile.

Todd Christensen production level.

Great pick.

Oakland Raiders Select: Gareon Conley, CB, Ohio State

Good athleticism traits.

Lacks production and similar to Justin Gilbert in that regard.

Cleveland Browns Select: Jabrill Peppers

Elite explosiveness and speed

Lack INT market share to become an elite safety.

Small version of Eric Reid.

Atlanta Falcons select: Takkarist McKinley

Kamerion Wimbley level athlete

Great production across the board

Poor value compared to other options

Buffalo Bills Select: Tre White

D.J. Hayden level athlete

Good production across the board

Poor value

Dallas Cowboys Select: Taco Charlton, DE, Michigan

Above average explosiveness and flexibility.

Below average speed.

Average production across the board.

Poor pick

Cleveland Browns Select: David Njoku, TE, Miami

All-Pro level production

Above average production across the board at a very young age.

Good pick.

Pittsburgh Steelers Select: T.J. Watt

Pro Bowl level athleticism and Production.

Scott Fujita like.

Good pick

San Francisco 49ers Select: Reuben Foster

Good not great solo tackle market share.

No athletic testing to determine much.

New Orleans Saints Select: Ryan Ramcyzk

Good overall physical profile, but no athleticism to determine overall upside.

Decent pick

Best Availables for Day 2.

Jordan Willis

Tyus Bowser

Malik McDowell

Larry Ogunjobi

Kevin King

Chidobe Awuzie

Marcus Williams

Xavier Woods

Dalvin Cook

D’Onta Foreman

Obi Melifonwu

Josh Jones

Forrest Lamp

Cam Robinson

Ahkello Witherspoon

Carl Lawson

DeShone Kizer

Zay Jones

Ishmael Zamora

Curtis Samuel

Taywan Taylor

Nico Siragusa

Ben Braden

Dan Feeney












4 thoughts on “2017 NFL Draft Live Analysis Page: Day 1

  1. Any thoughts on the difficulty in CB projections based on production metrics given Lattimore’s season? Or is one nfl season still too early


    1. One season is too early. The data I use is to project players over their careers. Not one year. But he certainly had good indicators from age to athleticism that could have made up for average production.


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