Arizona Cardinals Free Agency: Metric Analysis

I will post the profiles first, and get into my general analysis at the end.

2017 Free Agency Profiles

Andre Ellington

Running Back

Team Clemson
Age (On Draft Day) 24.23
Height 5-10
Weight 199
Arm Length 31
Hand Size 9.375
MSA Percentile 14.70
Market Share Percentile 38.56
Age Percentile 4.23
Explosive Lower Body Percentile 34.31
Speed Percentile 66.81
Flexibility Percentile 68.87
3-Cone 6.97
Bench Did not perform drill
Three-year NFL Production average
57.98923

Prospect CHECKLIST

Yes All-Pro Height Threshold 5-8 or Taller 100% of Multiple All-Pro and Pro Bowl RBs since the 1989 NFL draft class were 5-8 or >
 Yes 31” Arm Length or Longer 92% of Long-term Starters had at least 31’ Arm Length since 1999 NFL Draft Class
 Yes 8 7/8 Inch Hand Size or Bigger 100% of All-Pro and Pro Bowl RBs since the 1999 NFL draft class had at least 8 7/8-inch hand size or >
 No 5-Time All-Pro and 5-Time Pro Bowl MSA Percentile: 70 or Higher 100% of 5-Time All-Pro and 5-Time Pro Bowl RBs since the 1969 NFL Draft Class had at least 65 MSA Percentile Score or >
 No 3-Time Pro Bowl MSA Percentile: 59 or Higher 93% of 3-Time Pro Bowl RBs since 1969 NFL Draft Class had at least 59 Percentile MSA Percentile Score or >
 No Long-term Starter MSA Percentile: 51 or Higher 91% of all RBs since the 1969 NFL Draft Class with at least 64 starts in their career had at least a 51 MSA Rating Percentile Score or >
 No All-Pro Age Percentile of 79 or Higher 100% of Multiple All-Pro RBs since the 1989 NFL Draft Class were in the 79 or Higher Percentile of age ranked from youngest to oldest on draft day
 No Pro Bowl Age Percentile of 57 or Higher 100% of Multiple Pro Bowl RBs since the 1989 NFL Draft Class were in the 57 Percentile or >
 No All-Pro Market Share Production Percentile: 89 or Higher 100% of Multiple All-Pro RBs since the 1981 NFL Draft Class had a MS production score of 89 or higher
 No 5-Time Pro Bowl Market Share Production Percentile: 69.45 or Higher 75% of 5-Time Pro Bowl RBs since the 1981 NFL Draft Class had a MS production score of 69.45 or higher
 No 3-Time Pro Bowl Market Share Production Percentile: 51.91 or Higher 88% of 3-Time Pro Bowl RBs since the 1981 NFL Draft Class had a MS production score of 51.91 or higher
 No Explosive Lower Body Strength Score: 4 or higher 100% of Multiple All-Pro and Pro Bowl RBs since 1999 had at least a score of 4 on the explosive lower body strength score
 Yes Speed Score: 32.4 or higher 100% of Multiple All-Pro and Pro Bowl RBs since 1999 had at least a speed score of 32.4 or higher
 Yes Flexibility Score: 39.6 or Higher 100% of Multiple All-Pro and Pro Bowl RBs since 1999 had at least a flexibility score of 39.6
 No Athleticism Score: 79.28 or higher 90% of Multiple All-Pro and Pro Bowl RBs since 1999 had at least a one athleticism score (Explosive lower body, speed, or flexibility) of 79.28
 Yes 3-Cone: 7.09 or faster 100% of Multiple All-Pro and Pro Bowl RBs since 1999 had a 3-Cone of 7.09 or faster
 Did not perform Bench: 17 or More 100% of Multiple All-Pro and Pro Bowl RBs since 1999 had at least 17 reps on the bench press

*MSA Rating: The average score of a prospect’s market share production, strength of schedule and age percentile scores

*Explosive Lower Body Strength Score: A score formulated from a prospect’s vertical, broad jump and mass density measured against all his positional peers since 1998.

*Speed Score: A score formulated from a prospect’s 40-yard dash and mass density measured against all his positional peers since 1998.

*Flexibility Score: A score formulated from a prospect’s short shuttle, 3-Cone and mass density measured against all his positional peers since 1998.

NFL Market Share Production

2017 Free Agency Profiles

Antone Bethea

Defensive Safety

Team Howard
Age (On Draft Day) 21.77
Height 5-11
Weight 203
Arm Length 30.625
Hand Size 9.125
Age Percentile 90.86
MSA Percentile N/A due to level of competition
Solo Tackle Market Share Score N/A
INT Market Share Score N/A
PD Market Share Score N/A
Explosive Lower Body Strength Score 80.17
Speed Score 96.34
Flexibility Score 86.61
Bench 19

 

Prospect CHECKLIST

 Yes All-Pro and Pro Bowl Age Percentile: 76 or Higher 90% of Multiple All-Pro and Pro Bowl DS Since the 1998 NFL Draft Class were in the 76 Percentile or Higher of age ranked from youngest to oldest
 N/A All-Pro and Pro Bowl MSA Percentile: 82 or Higher 100% of Multiple All-Pro and Pro Bowl DS’ Since the 1998 NFL Draft Class were in the 82 Percentile or higher in MSA
 N/A All-Pro SS Solo Tackle Market Share Score: 98.90 or Higher 100% of Multiple All-Pro SS since the 1999 NFL Draft Class had a solo tackle market share score of 98.90 or higher
 N/A All-Pro FS Solo Tackle Market Share Score: 72.23 or Higher  100% of Multiple All-Pro FS since the 1999 NFL Draft Class had a solo tackle market share score of 98.90 or higher
 N/A Pro Bowl SS Solo Tackle Market Share Score: 77.66 or Higher 80% of Multiple Pro Bowl SS since the 1999 NFL Draft Class had a solo tackle market share score of 77.66 or higher
 N/A Pro Bowl FS Solo Tackle Market Share Score: 70.34 or Higher 80% of Multiple Pro Bowl FS since the 1999 NFL Draft Class had a solo tackle market share score of 70.34 or higher
 N/A All-Pro SS INT Market Share Score: 84.12 or Higher 100% of Multiple All-Pro SS since the 1999 NFL Draft Class had a INT market share score of 84.12 or higher
 N/A All-Pro FS INT Market Share Score: 89.92 or Higher 100% of Multiple All-Pro FS since the 1999 NFL Draft Class had a INT market share score of 89.92 or higher
 N/A Pro Bowl SS INT Market Share Score: 27.09 or Higher 100% of Multiple Pro Bowl SS since the 1999 NFL Draft Class had an INT market share score of 27.09 or higher
 N/A Pro Bowl FS INT Market Share Score: 32.41 or Higher 100% of Multiple Pro Bowl FS since the 1999 NFL Draft Class had an INT market share score of 32.41 or higher
 N/A All-Pro SS PD Market Share Score: 78.23 or Higher 100% of Multiple All-Pro SS since the 1999 NFL Draft Class had an PD market share score of 78.23 or higher
 N/A All-Pro FS PD Market Share Score: 98.47 or Higher 100% of Multiple All-Pro FS since the 1999 NFL Draft Class had an PD market share score of 98.47 or higher
 N/A Pro Bowl SS PD Market Share Score: 53.80 or Higher 100% of Pro Bowl SS since the 1999 NFL Draft Class had an PD market share score of 53.80 or higher
 N/A Pro Bowl FS PD Market Share Score: 70.91 or Higher 100% of Pro Bowl FS since the 1999 NFL Draft Class had an PD market share score of 70.91 or higher
 No All-Pro SS Arm Length: 33’’ or Longer 100% of Multiple All-Pro SS’ since the 1998 NFL Draft Class had 33’’ or Longer Arm Length
 Yes All-Pro FS Arm Length: 29’’ or Longer  100% of Multiple All-Pro FS’ since the 1998 NFL Draft Class had 29’’ or Longer Arm Length
 No All-Pro SS Explosive Lower Body Strength Score: 91.53 or higher  100% of Multiple All-Pro SS since the 1998 NFL Draft Class had an explosive lower body strength score of 91.53 or higher
 Yes All-Pro FS Explosive Lower Body Strength Score: 33.48 or higher  100% of Multiple All-Pro FS since the 1998 NFL Draft Class had an explosive lower body strength score of 33.48 or higher
 Yes Pro Bowl SS Explosive Lower Body Strength Score: 66.24 or higher  100% of Multiple Pro Bowl SS since the 1998 NFL Draft Class had an explosive lower body strength score of 66.24 or higher
 Yes Pro Bowl FS Explosive Lower Body Strength Score: 33.48 or higher  100% of Multiple Pro Bowl FS since the 1998 NFL Draft Class had an explosive lower body strength score of 33.48 or higher
Yes Starter Explosive Lower Body Strength Score: 15.46 or higher  100% of 64 start or more DS since the 1998 NFL Draft class had an explosive lower body strength score of 15.46 or higher
 Yes All-Pro Speed Score: 85.80 or higher  80% of multiple All-Pro DS since the 1998 NFL Draft class had a speed score of 85.80 or higher
 Yes Pro Bowl Speed Score: 42.12 or higher  100% of multiple DS since the 1998 NFL Draft class had a speed score of 42.12 or higher
 Yes Starter Speed Score: 23.38 or higher  100% of 64 start or more DS since the 1998 NFL Draft class had a speed score of 23.38 or higher
 Yes All-Pro and Pro Bowl Flexibility Score: 85.89 or higher  87.5% of multiple All-Pro and Pro Bowl DS since the 1998 NFL Draft class had a flexibility score of 85.89 or higher
 Yes Starter Flexibility Score: 23.02 or higher  100% of 64 start or more DS since the 1998 NFL Draft class had a flexibility score of 23.02 or higher
 Yes Starter Bench: 4 reps or more  100% of 64 start or more DS since the 1998 NFL Draft class had 4 reps or more on the bench press

*MSA Rating: The average score of a prospect’s market share production, strength of schedule and age percentile scores

*Explosive Lower Body Strength Score: A score formulated from a prospect’s vertical, broad jump and mass density measured against all his positional peers since 1998.

*Speed Score: A score formulated from a prospect’s 40-yard dash and mass density measured against all his positional peers since 1998.

*Flexibility Score: A score formulated from a prospect’s short shuttle, 3-Cone and mass density measured against all his positional peers since 1998.

NFL Market Share Production

Metric Analysis: Antoine Bethea was a All-Pro level free safety athlete, but his best day may be behind. Most positions including safety, see approximately a 20% decrease in overall impact once they reach age 30. Since Bethea is a seasoned veteran and was a great athlete coming out of Howard. He could continue to produce like he has done in 2016. Average safety play is better than poor safety play, but bottom-line he’s a player who is more likely to give you diminishing returns from here on out.

2017 Free Agency Profiles

Jarvis Jones

Defensive End/3-4 OLB

Team Georgia
Age (On Draft Day) 23.54
Height 6-2
Weight 245
Arm Length 33
Hand Size 9.125
Age Percentile 19.30
MSA Percentile 86.68
Explosive Lower Body Strength Score 10.37
Speed Score 20.50
Flexibility Score 9.87
Bench 20
Three-year production average 33.2269220537377

Prospect CHECKLIST

 No Hit Multiple All-Pro Age Percentile: 81 or Higher 100% of Multiple All-Pro Edge Rushers Since the 1996 NFL Draft Class were in the 81 Percentile or Higher of age ranked from youngest to oldest
 No Hit Multiple All-Pro Age Percentile: 64 or Higher 100% of Multiple Pro Bowl Edge Rushers Since the 1996 NFL Draft Class were in the 64 Percentile or Higher of age ranked from youngest to oldest
 Yes Hit All-Pro Market Share MSA Percentile: 76 or Higher 100% of Multiple All-Pro and Pro Bowl Edge Rushers since the 1996 NFL Draft Class were in the 76 Percentile or Higher of MSA
 Yes Long-term Starter MSA Percentile: 50 or Higher 78% of 64 Start or more Edge Rushers since the 1996 NFL Draft Class were in the 50 Percentile or higher of MSA
 No  All-Pro Height: 6-4 or Taller 100% of Multiple All-Pro Edge Rushers since the 1996 NFL Draft Class were 6-4 or Taller
 Yes Pro Bowl Height: 5-11 or Taller 100% of Multiple Pro Bowl Edge Rushers since the 1996 NFL Draft Class were 5-11 or Taller
 Yes All-Pro and Pro Bowl Arm Length: 32’ or Longer 100% of multiple All-Pro and Pro Bowl Edge Rushers since the 1996 NFL Draft class had 32’’ or longer Arm Length
 Yes All-Pro and Pro Bowl Hand Size: 8 7/8’’ or Bigger 100% of Multiple All-Pro and Pro Bowl Edge Rushers since the 1996 NFL Draft class had 8 7/8’’ or Bigger
 No All-Pro Explosive Lower Body Strength Score: 57.50 or higher 100% of Multiple All-Pro Edge Rushers since the 1998 NFL Draft Class had an explosive lower body strength score of 57.50 or higher
 No Pro Bowl Explosive Lower Body Strength Score: 30.89 or higher 100% of Multiple Pro Bowl Edge Rushers since the 1998 NFL Draft Class had an explosive lower body strength score of 30.89 or higher
 Yes Starter Explosive Lower Body Strength Score: 7.89 or higher 100% of 64 start or more Edge Rushers since the 1998 NFL Draft Class had an explosive lower body strength score of 7.89 or higher
 No All-Pro Speed Score: 71.18 or higher 100% of Multiple All-Pro Edge Rushers since the 1998 NFL Draft Class had a speed score of 71.18 or higher
 No Pro Bowl Speed Score: 57.58 or higher 100% of Multiple Pro Bowl Edge Rushers since the 1998 NFL Draft Class had a speed score of 57.58 or higher
 Yes Starter Speed Score: 17.84 or higher 100% of 64 Start or more Edge Rushers since the 1998 NFL Draft Class had a speed score of 17.84 or higher
 No All-Pro Flexibility Score: 76.70 100% of Multiple All-Pro Edge Rushers since the 1998 NFL Draft Class had a flexibility score of 76.70 or higher
 No Pro Bowl Flexibility Score: 69.87 or higher 91% Multiple Pro Bowl Edge Rushers since the 1998 NFL Draft Class had a flexibility score of 69.87 or higher
 Yes Starter Flexibility Score: 6.07 or higher 100% of 64 Start or more Edge Rushers since the 1998 NFL Draft Class had a flexibility score of 6.07 or higher
 Yes Starter Bench: 13 or more 100% of multiple 64 Start or more Edge Rushers since 1998 had at least 13 reps on the bench

*MSA Rating: The average score of a prospect’s market share production, strength of schedule and age percentile scores

*Explosive Lower Body Strength Score: A score formulated from a prospect’s vertical, broad jump and mass density measured against all his positional peers since 1998.

*Speed Score: A score formulated from a prospect’s 40-yard dash and mass density measured against all his positional peers since 1998.

*Flexibility Score: A score formulated from a prospect’s short shuttle, 3-Cone and mass density measured against all his positional peers since 1998.

NFL Market Share Production

jarvis-jones

Metric Recommendation: Jarvis Jones meets all the production areas for a very pass rusher, but lacks all the athleticism marks to be anything other than a spot starter. He barely meets the thresholds for starter in every athleticism metric. And while he has shown to have some production in the NFL. I would recommend an NFL salary of 479,250 to 686,925 a year. Making him a reasonably well paid backup/contributor.

However, he would be someone I would avoid due to a lack of any upside potential. He tested so poorly that it’s easy to say you could find many players that are better on the open market. An average Edge in the draft would be better value than Jones.

2017 Free Agency Profiles

Karlos Dansby

Pursuit Linebacker

Team Auburn
Age (On Draft Day) 22.48
Height 6-3
Weight 247
Arm Length 33.375
Hand Size Unknown
Age Percentile 73.43
MSA Rating Score 91.67
Production Percentile 85.24
Explosive Lower Body Strength Score 57.22
Speed Score 90.86
Flexibility Score 40.50
Bench 15

 

Prospect CHECKLIST

 Yes All-Pro and Pro Bowl Age Percentile: 54 or Higher 100% of Multiple All-Pro and Pro Bowl LBs Since the 1996 NFL Draft Class were in the 54 Percentile or Higher of age ranked from youngest to oldest
 Yes All-Pro and Pro Bowl MSA Rating Score: 84.22 or Higher 100% of Multiple All-Pro and Pro Bowl LBs since the 1996 NFL Draft Class had an MSA Rating score of 84.22 or Higher
 Yes Starter MSA Rating Score: 50.10 or Higher 91.2% of Multiple 64 Start or more LBs since the 1996 NFL Draft Class had an MSA Rating score of 50.10 or higher
 No All-Pro Solo Tackle MS Production: 90 or Higher 100% of Multiple All-Pro LBs since the 1996 NFL Draft Class were in the 90 or Higher Percentile of Solo Tackle Market Share Production
 Yes Pro Bowl Solo Tackle MS Production: 77 or Higher 100% of Multiple Pro Bowl LBs since the 1996 NFL Draft Class were in the 77 or Higher Percentile of Solo Tackle Market Share Production
 Yes All-Pro and Pro Bowl Height: 6-1 or Taller 100% of multiple All-Pro and Pro Bowl LBs since the 1996 NFL Draft Class were 6-1 or Taller
 Yes All-Pro and Pro Bowl Arm Length: 31’’ or Longer 100% of multiple All-Pro LBs since the 1996 NFL Draft class had 31’’ or longer Arm Length
 Unknown All-Pro and Pro Bowl Hand Size: 8 3/4’’ or Bigger 100% of Multiple All-Pro LBs since the 1996 NFL Draft class had 8 3/4’’ or Bigger
 No All-Pro Explosive Lower Body Strength Score: 83.15 or higher 83% of multiple All-Pro LBs since the 1996 NFL Draft class had an explosive lower body strength score of 83.15 or higher
 No Pro Bowl Explosive Lower Body Strength Score: 65 or higher 100% of multiple Pro Bowl LBs since the 1996 NFL Draft class had an explosive lower body strength score of 65 or higher
 Yes Starter Explosive Lower Body Strength Score: 8.96 or higher 100% of 64 start or more LBs since the 1996 NFL Draft class had an explosive lower body strength score of 8.96 or higher
 Yes All-Pro Speed Score: 77.27 or higher 100% of multiple All-Pro LBs since the 1996 NFL Draft class had a speed score of 77.27 or higher
 Yes Pro Bowl Speed Score: 64.08 or higher 83% of multiple Pro Bowl LBs since the 1996 NFL Draft class had a speed score of
 Yes Starter Speed Score: 6.45 or higher 100% of 64 start or more LBs since the 1996 NFL Draft class had a speed score of 6.45 or higher
 No All-Pro Flexibility Score: 77.27 or higher 100% of multiple All-Pro LBs since the 1996 NFL Draft class had a flexibility score of 77.27 or higher
 No Pro Bowl Flexibility Score: 61.21 or higher 100% of multiple Pro Bowl LBs since the 1996 NFL Draft class had a flexibility score of 61.21 or higher
 Yes Starter Flexibility Score: 1.72 or higher 100% of 64 start or more LBs since the 1996 NFL Draft class had a flexibility score of 1.72 or higher
 No All-Pro Bench: 22 or more reps 100% of multiple All-Pro LBs since the 1996 NFL Draft class had 22 or more bench reps
 No Pro Bowl Bench:  17 or more reps 100% of multiple Pro Bowl LBs since the 1996 NFL Draft class had 17 or more bench reps
 Yes Starter Bench:  15 or more reps 100% of 64 start or more LBs since the 1996 NFL Draft class had 15 or more bench reps

*MSA Rating: The average score of a prospect’s market share production, strength of schedule and age percentile scores

*Explosive Lower Body Strength Score: A score formulated from a prospect’s vertical, broad jump and mass density measured against all his positional peers since 1998.

*Speed Score: A score formulated from a prospect’s 40-yard dash and mass density measured against all his positional peers since 1998.

*Flexibility Score: A score formulated from a prospect’s short shuttle, 3-Cone and mass density measured against all his positional peers since 1998.

 

NFL Market Share Production

Metric Analysis: Karlos Dansby was a highly productive linebacker throughout his career. But he will be turning 36 years old in 2017 with a clear decline in his production from 2014-2016. He should be expected to put up the same production he’s accomplished in his mid-30s. However, he is at an age where retirement at any moment is a real possibility. Dansby will simply never be the player he was earlier in his career.

Arizona Cardinals Free Agency Overview

I would say the Cardinals lost a lot of depth in Alex Okafor/Tony Jefferson and replaced it with veterans in Dansby/Bethea/Dawson who have seen better days. Jarvis Jones will never be much from an athletic standpoint, and his NFL production has never even been serviceable. While Ellington will continue to be the change of pace/backup to David Johnson. The Cardinals simply did not get better in the early portion of this free agency. There are a few free agents out there that could boost them as late adds.

But the players they added are not going to replace what they lost, let alone address the roster needs they have long-term.

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s