2017 NFL Free Agency Profiles: Rex Burkhead

2017 Free Agency Profiles

Rex Burkhead

Running Back

Team Cincinnati Bengals
Age (On Draft Day) 22.83
Height 5-10
Weight 214
Arm Length 30.875
Hand Size 9.75
MSA Percentile 75.24
Age Percentile 52.14
Explosive Lower Body Percentile 90.65
Speed Percentile 35.96
Dynamic Speed Percentile 87.94
3-Cone 6.85
Bench 21
Best NFL Production Score 58.16876122
Three-year NFL Production average N/A

 

Prospect CHECKLIST

Yes All-Pro Height Threshold 5-8 or Taller 100% of Multiple All-Pro and Pro Bowl RBs since the 1989 NFL draft class were 5-8 or >
 No 31” Arm Length or Longer 92% of Long-term Starters had at least 31’ Arm Length since 1999 NFL Draft Class
 Yes 8 7/8 Inch Hand Size or Bigger 100% of All-Pro and Pro Bowl RBs since the 1999 NFL draft class had at least 8 7/8-inch hand size or >
 Yes 5-Time All-Pro and 5-Time Pro Bowl MSA Percentile: 70 or Higher 100% of 5-Time All-Pro and 5-Time Pro Bowl RBs since the 1969 NFL Draft Class had at least 65 MSA Percentile Score or >
 Yes 3-Time Pro Bowl MSA Percentile: 59 or Higher 93% of 3-Time Pro Bowl RBs since 1969 NFL Draft Class had at least 59 Percentile MSA Percentile Score or >
 Yes Long-term Starter MSA Percentile: 51 or Higher 91% of all RBs since the 1969 NFL Draft Class with at least 64 starts in their career had at least a 51 MSA Rating Percentile Score or >
 No All-Pro Age Percentile of 79 or Higher 100% of Multiple All-Pro RBs since the 1989 NFL Draft Class were in the 79 or Higher Percentile of age ranked from youngest to oldest on draft day
 No Pro Bowl Age Percentile of 57 or Higher 100% of Multiple Pro Bowl RBs since the 1989 NFL Draft Class were in the 57 Percentile or >
 Yes Explosive Lower Body Strength Score: 4 or higher 100% of Multiple All-Pro and Pro Bowl RBs since 1999 had at least a score of 4 on the explosive lower body strength score
 Yes Speed Score: 32.4 or higher 100% of Multiple All-Pro and Pro Bowl RBs since 1999 had at least a speed score of 32.4 or higher
 Yes Flexibility Score: 39.6 or Higher 100% of Multiple All-Pro and Pro Bowl RBs since 1999 had at least a flexibility score of 39.6
 Yes Athleticism Score: 79.28 or higher 90% of Multiple All-Pro and Pro Bowl RBs since 1999 had at least a one athleticism score (Explosive lower body, speed, or flexibility) of 79.28
 Yes 3-Cone: 7.09 or faster 100% of Multiple All-Pro and Pro Bowl RBs since 1999 had a 3-Cone of 7.09 or faster
 Yes Bench: 17 or More 100% of Multiple All-Pro and Pro Bowl RBs since 1999 had at least 17 reps on the bench press

 

*MSA Rating: The average score of a prospect’s market share production, strength of schedule and age percentile scores

*Explosive Lower Body Strength Score: A score formulated from a prospect’s vertical, broad jump and mass density measured against all his positional peers since 1998.

*Speed Score: A score formulated from a prospect’s 40-yard dash and mass density measured against all his positional peers since 1998.

*Flexibility Score: A score formulated from a prospect’s short shuttle, 3-Cone and mass density measured against all his positional peers since 1998.

NFL Production

rex-burkhead

Metric Recommendation: Burkhead meets all the requirements for an All-Pro/Pro Bowl level back, except for his age and arm length. There have only been two running backs to have consistent success in the NFL with below 31-inch arm length in Chris Johnson and C.J. Spiller since the 1999 NFL Draft class. Which is a glaring red flag along with Burkhead’s production in the NFL where he’s only had two seasons to qualify by my production metrics. And his best season in 2016 was backup/committee level output. I usually side with athleticism and college/NFL production over physical characteristics.

But I can’t dismiss the fact that Burkhead has a low chance at this point of his career to turn into a multiple All-Pro/Pro Bowl level back. However, his explosiveness and flexibility traits can turn him into a significant producer in a ZBS scheme. He shares similar athletic qualities to backs like Arian Foster, Ryan Torain and Alfred Morris. Where Burkhead’s elite explosiveness can aid in getting to and exploding through holes. While his elite flexibility aids in out leveraging linebackers/defensive linemen for additional yards after contact.

This ultimately brings us to the two big questions to answer with Burkhead:

  • Will he sign with a ZBS team?
  • And will he be given the opportunity to produce in that scheme?

At this point in Burkhead’s career, he needs a ZBS team to give him an opportunity. Something I can’t predict, until I know exactly where he ends up and the competition he will face. So, I would recommend a salary of 665,841 dollars, or average backup salary adjusting for the salary cap increase. If I was a ZBS team, Burkhead would be a back I’d target and bring in as a potential starter. However, I would be wary about paying for potential that hasn’t materialized in the NFL yet.

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