Duke Riley Film Grade: Alabama

Name: Duke Riley

School: LSU

Opponent: Alabama

Height/Weight: 6-0, 227                              

Year: Sr       

Score: 10-0    

Date:   11/5/16           

Location: Alabama  

Overall Score: 49

Category Score:

Quickness: 7/7

Fluidity: 4/7

Flexibility: 3/7

Power:    4/8

Recognition Skills: 4/8

Consistency: 0/8

Block Recognition/Reaction:            4/12

Pass Rush: 4/12

Pursuit/Tackling:                 5/10

Pass Coverage: 8/15

Durability: 6/6

Position fit: MLB

Quickness                                                                                            

Demonstrates quickness in all directions-4pts: Yes

Above-average quickness for his size-3pts:   Yes

Fluidity

Displays fluid movements while reacting-4pts: Yes

No visible signs of stiffness-3pts: No

Flexibility                                                                                           

Demonstrates excellent flexibility for size-4pts:           No

Flexible enough to maintain leverage-3pts:                   Yes

Power

Demonstrates an effective punch-4pts: Yes

Sheds blocks quickly-4pts: No

Recognition Skills                                                                             

Makes proper adjustments to offensive actions-4pts:  No

Recognizes block patterns and neutralizes them-4pts: Yes

Consistency

Demonstrates reliability under pressure-4pts: No

Demonstrates a high football I.Q.-4pts: No

Blocks                                                                                                                                                  

Neutralizes drive blocks-2pts:          Yes

Neutralizes cut blocks-2pts:              No

Neutralizes angle blocks-2pts:          No

Neutralizes hook blocks-2pts:           No

Neutralizes trap blocks-2pts:             No

Neutralizes lead block-2pts:  Yes

Pass Rush

Effective outside blitz-4pts:              No

Effective inside blitz-4pts: No

Effective stunts-4pts:  Yes

Tackling                                                                                              

Effective open field tackling-3pts:   No

Effective sideline tackling-2pt:         Yes

Effective gang-tackling-1pt:              Yes

Pursuit 

Effective strong side/weak side pursuit-2pts: Yes

Effective depth in pursuit-2pts: No

Zone Pass Defense                                                                            

Doesn’t over pursue or overreact-2pts:  No

Stays in assigned zone-2pts:             Yes

Drops to landmark and reads QB-2pts:  Yes

Makes good decisions-2pts:              No

Doesn’t break on shallow routes ball out-2pts:             Yes

Man-to-Man Pass Defense

Backpedals-1pt: No

Angle backpedals-1pt:   Yes

Rolls over to direction of play-1pt:  Yes

Tips ball in coverage-1pt:  No

Intercepts ball in coverage-1pt:  No

Durability

Missed fewer than 10% of opportunities to play thus far in college-2pts: Yes

Without chronic injuries throughout college career-2pts: Yes

Without injuries requiring extensive rehab during college career-2pts: Yes

Cole Hikutuni Film Grade: Florida State

Name: Cole Hikutini

School: Louisville

Ht/Wt: 6-4, 248

Year: Sr

Opponent: Florida State

Location: Louisville

Score: 20-63

Date: 9/17/16

Overall Score: 71.5/100

Category Score:

Routes 16/25

Receiving 16/25

Stance/Release/Separation 8/11

Ball Handling 6/6

Elusiveness/Power After the Catch 7/13

Blocking 2.5/3

Vision 6/6

Balance 4/5

Durability 6/6

Routes

Good Depth-2pts: Yes

Good Glide Manipulation-3pts: No

Good Sprint Manipulation-3pts: Yes

Good Burst/Effort in Break-3pts: Yes

Effective Short Patterns-2pts: Yes

Effective Intermediate Patterns-4pts: Yes

Effective Deep Patterns-2pts: No

Effective Man recognition-2pts: No

Effective Zone recognition-2pts: Yes

Good Sideline Awareness-2pt: No

Receiving

Hands catcher-4pts: Yes

Good ball tracking without seeing ball leave the QBs hand-4pts: No

Good body control-3pts: Yes

Consistency-3pts: Yes

Effective in traffic-3pts: Yes

Effective in contested situations-3pts: No

Maintains catch after contact-3pts: Yes

Can make difficult catches-1pt: No

Stance/Releases/Separation

Proper Stance-2pts: Yes

Effective Inside Release-2pts: No

Effective Outside Release-2pts: Yes

Consistent separation-4pts: Yes

Deep/intermediate separation-1pt: No

Ball Handling                                     

Good ball security-2pts: Yes

Maintains security through catch-3pts: Yes

Uses correct arm parallel to sideline-1pt: Yes

Elusiveness/Power After the Catch

Effective jukes in space-2pts: Yes  

Multiple jukes in space-2pts: No

Avoids direct contact-2pts: Yes

Breaks tackles-3-pts: No

Good stiff arm/punch-1pt: No

Good determination after the catch-3pts: Yes

Blocking

Effective punch-1pt: Yes

Correct hand placement-1pt: Yes

Effective mirror blocking-1/2pt: No

Effective hook block-1/2pt: Yes

Vision   

Decisive-3pts: Yes

Accurate-3pts:     Yes                                                       

Balance

Maintains footing when making cuts-2pts:  Yes

Maintains balance when hit head on-2pts:  Yes

Balance when hit from an indirect angle-1pts:  No

Durability

Missed fewer than 10% of opportunities to play thus far in college-2pts:  Yes

Without chronic injuries throughout college career-2pts: Yes

Without injuries requiring extensive rehab during college career-2pts: Yes

Antonio Pipkins Film Grade: Hillsdale

Name:  Antonio Pipkin

School: Tiffin

Opponent: Hillsdale

Height/Weight: 6-2, 208

Year: Sr

Score:  24-38

Date:   10/24/2015

Location: Hillsdale

Overall Score: 71

Category Scores:

Accuracy 13/21

Decisions Score 4/14

Ball Handling Score 6/8

Delivery Score 16/16

Arm Strength Score 11/11

Pocket Presence Score 10/18

Scrambling Score 5/5

Durability Score 6/6

Accuracy                                                                             

High completion rate (>60%)-5 pts: No

Deep Accuracy- 2 pts:        No

Intermediate Accuracy- 7 pts: Yes

Short Accuracy- 5 pts:         Yes

Accuracy moving right- 1 pts: Yes

Accuracy moving left- 1 pts: No

Decisions

Avoids locking onto one receiver- 3 pts: No

Plays with controlled aggression- 2 pts:  No

Manipulates defense with eyes- 2pts: No

Makes effective presnap reads- 2pts: Yes

Throws ball away to avoid sacks- 3 pts: No

Checks down judiciously- 2pts: Yes

Ball Handling                                                                                     

Play Fakes- 1pt:   No

Center Exchange-2pts: Yes

Pump Fakes-1pt: No

Ball security while running-2pt:       Yes

Maintains security when hit-2pts:    Yes

Delivery

Delivers from variety of platforms-2pts: Yes

Catchable ball (touch, spirals, etc.)-4pts: Yes

Quick Release-4pts: Yes

Compact Delivery-4pts: Yes

Good drop depth-2pts: Yes

Arm Strength                                                                                     

Deep velocity-2pts:             Yes

Deep distance (> than 40 yards)-2 pts: Yes

Intermediate velocity-5pts: Yes

Velocity on the move-2 pts: Yes

Pocket Presence

Climbs pocket effectively-5pts: Yes

Willing to take hit to deliver ball-2 pts: No

Senses pass rush-5 pts: Yes

Manages outside pressure-3 pts: No

Manages pressure up the middle-3 pts: No

Scrambling

Positive yards when breaking the pocket-2pts: Yes

Positive yards when pocket collapses-1 pt: Yes

Capable of big gains as a runner- 2pts: Yes

Durability

Missed fewer than 10% of opportunities to play thus far in college-2pts:  Yes

Without chronic injuries throughout college career-2pts:  Yes

Without injuries requiring extensive rehab during college career-2pts:  Yes

Senior Bowl Quarterback Prospect Profiles

Attached is the profiles for Antonio Pipkins, C.J. Beathard,  Chad Kelly, Davis Webb, Josh Dobbs, Nathan Peterman, Sefo Liafau and Seth Russell. It includes age if available, production and my own film grade from this season. In addition to fill in the blank portions on height, weight and hand size. People talk a lot about checking off all the boxes, but this is exactly that. Except the boxes to check off have real implications on future potential and success.

So here is the PDF below. Feel free to print it off and use as you see fit.

quarterbacks-senior-bowl

2017 NFL Draft Pre-Combine Data Spreadsheet: Update 1/15/2017

Here is my pre-combine data collection spreadsheet on production. It includes QB, RB, WR, TE, DE, DT, LB, CB and DS data. With a variety of variables such as TD/INT ratio, completion percentage, SOS, market share and age based data. Feel free to examine and use some of it in articles, or as an agent as long as you credit it to me. I included with the current class in orange successful outcome players in dark green (All-Pro), light green (Pro Bowl) and blue (Long-term starter) to give you some perspective on the significance of these numbers in identifying potential All-Pro and Pro Bowl caliber players.

I didn’t include the mother data set, because one, it’s a lot of data to comb through and can be confusing for some to grasp without cutting some of the fat. And two, I spent almost four years collecting all of it. If you are interested in the entire data set. Or you want to ask about my methods contact me at james_cobern@yahoo.com or on twitter @Jmcobern1. All of the data I gathered and designed is easy to explain to anyone with basic math skills.

Also remember that none of this data says with 100% certainty a prospect will become great, good or bad. It should simply get people thinking about the variables that make successful players, and the current players in this class who have similar traits. I have yet to add the other layers of athletic, film and physical characteristics. So proceed with caution before making sweeping generalizations. Always make decisions based on the cumulative work you’ve done, and not based on one variable.

2016 Metric All-Americans

As most of you who are familiar with my work, I do a lot of analytical studies. Whether it’s measuring age, athleticism or production of NFL prospects.

And this year, I felt the spark to create a list of All-Americans based entirely on numbers. One, because it has never been done before to my knowledge.

And two, because it would be a good way to raise questions about who should really be an All-American. Lots of superficial factors sway how people feel about college players.

So an objective measure of performance like this could be helpful in illuminating underappreciated prospects. And take away some of the superficial factors such as the school a player plays on, or random hype generated from one big game on the national stage.

Now onto how I constructed this list. I used two main components in measuring the performances:

  • Strength of Schedule
  • Production

Strength of Schedule was collected from College Football Reference where I converted the hardest to weakest team schedule into a number from 0-99. And College Football Reference is also the site where I collected the statistical data used at QB, RB, WR, TE, LB, DE, DT, CB and DS.

Production at quarterback was measured by weighing various statistics such as TD/INT ratio, quarterback rating, completion percentage and yards per attempt compared to their peers this year and the last ten years.

Production at running back, wide receiver and tight end were measured by market share production. Or a player’s percentage of their offense either through passing yardage, or all-purpose yardage.

Which I find to be a great gauge of just how much impact that prospect had on their individual team. Raw stats are way too dependent on the overall output of a team’s offense.

And the same goes for defensive production that is measured through market share as well. Each defensive player’s solo tackle, sack, tackle for loss, interception and pass deflection market share was collected.

Then I compared that data to their peers. Whether it be cornerback to cornerback, or edge rusher to edge rusher.

The only positions I did not add to this list was offensive linemen, where there are unfortunately no statistics to measure at that position. So without further ado, here is the 2016 College Football Metric All-American list.

First-team

QB

Sam Darnold, USC

RB

Christian McCaffrey, Stanford

Dalvin Cook, Florida State

WR

Austin Carr, Northwestern

Amba Etta-Tawo, Syracuse

TE

Evan Engram, Ole Miss

Troy Fumagalli, Wisconsin

Edge Rusher

Takkarist McKinley, UCLA

Hunter Dimick, Utah

T.J. Watt, Wisconsin

Defensive Tackle

Jarron Jones, Notre Dame

Jonathan Allen, Alabama

Pursuit LB

Jack Cichy, Wisconsin

Tegray Scales, Indiana

Kenneth Olugbode, Colorado

Cornerback

Adoree Jackson, USC

Jaylen Dunlap, Illinois

Safety

Nathan Gerry, Nebraska

Josh Jones, North Carolina State

Second Team

QB

Luke Falk, Washington State

RB

Justin Jackson, Northwestern

D’Onta Foreman, Texas

WR

Isaiah Jones, East Carolina

Dede Westbrook, Oklahoma

TE

Mike Gesicki, Penn State

Jake Butt, Michigan

Edge Rusher

Derek Barnett, Tennessee

Marquis Haynes, Ole Miss

Demarcus Walker, Florida State

Defensive Tackle

Solomon Thomas, Stanford

Ed Oliver, Houston

Pursuit LB

Zach Cunningham, Vanderbilt

Micah Kiser, Virginia

Jordan Jones, Kentucky

Cornerback

Treston Decoud, Oregon State

Ryan Lewis, Pittsburgh

Defensive Safety

Tedric Thompson, Colorado

Shalom Luani, Washington State

Third Team

QB

Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma

RB

Joe Williams, Utah

Saquan Barkley, Penn State

WR

Drew Wolitarsky, Minnesota

Malik Turner, Illinois

TE

Hayden Hurst, South Carolina

Adam Breneman, Massachusetts

Edge Rusher

Porter Gustin, USC

Jimmie Gilbert, Colorado

Bright Ugwoegbu, Oregon State

Defensive Tackle

Jaleel Johnson, Iowa

Rasheem Greene, USC

Pursuit LB

Jayon Brown, UCLA

Travin Howard, TCU

Joe Giles-Harris, Duke

Cornerback

Montre Hartage, Northwestern

Xavier Crawford, Oregon State

Safety

Malik Hooker, Ohio State

Minkah Fitzpatrick, Alabama