Methodology of Age and Market Share data

Age Methodology

All age data on this site starts by finding a prospect’s birth date through google or verified by the prospect through social media or in person. Then that birth date is used to determine the age of a prospect on their draft day.
This process is repeated with every prospect in the sample spanning every draft class from 1996-present. Once all prospect ages on draft day are found, they are rank from youngest to oldest.
Then the sample is converted into 0-100 percentile scores. After that the percentile thresholds are determined by quality grading.

Quality Grading

There are six grades in determining quality and are significant in determining percentiles:

  • 5-Time All-Pro: Prospect in the sample received at least five first-team or second-team considerations in their career.
  • 5-Pro Bowl: Prospect in the sample received at least five Pro Bowl considerations in their career.
  • 3-Time Pro Bowl: Prospect in the sample received at least three Pro Bowl considerations in their career.
  • Starter: 64 starts in their career or more.
  • Backup: 5 years or more of NFL experience, but with less than 64 starts.
  • Reserve: Only 4 years or less of NFL experience with less than 64 starts.

Age Methodology Continued

Age percentile thresholds typically differ position by position. And each grade per prospect highlights those quality differences if any exist.

Market Share Methodology

Market share data is taking a prospect’s best statistical season as a college player in various categories and dividing by the prospect’s team totals. The data used here is collected through school websites and http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb .

So for example determining a wide receiver’s passing yardage market share goes like this. You visit the school website or SR website and determine the best statistical season.

Then you divide his passing yards for that season by his team’s total passing yards. You rinse and repeat this process over the rest of sample.
Followed by ranking every prospect in the sample from highest market share to lowest. Convert that into a 0-100 percentile score.

And then determine market share thresholds by where the quality players fall in the sample. So if for example 100% of the multiple All-Pro wide receivers were in the 70 or higher percentile, that’s where the grade is formed.

This market share process was applied to raw total offensive yards, passing yards, solo tackles, sacks, tackles for loss, interceptions and pass deflection data.

Sample Sizes

In order to get a statistically significant sample, every prospect with available data going all the way back to the 1996 draft class for defensive prospects. And as far as 1985 for offensive prospects was included in the sample.
The total number of prospects in each sample are:
RB: 834
WR: 1,329
TE: 628
DE/Rush OLB: 878
IDL: 996
LB: 1,384
CB: 1,177
DS: 1,179

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2016 NFL Draft Pre-Combine Metrical Profile: Corey Coleman

Name: Corey Coleman

Position: WR
College: Baylor
Height/Weight: 5-10, 185
Age on Draft Day: 21.82

Age Metrics

Age Percentile: 87.79
80 Percentile or higher: Yes
54 Percentile or higher: Yes

Production Metrics

Market Share Yardage Percentile: 86.58
Corey Coleman Production
5-Time All-Pro 91 Percentile: No
3-Time All-Pro 80 Percentile: Yes
3-Time Pro Bowl 70 Percentile: Yes

Major Metrical Strengths:
• Hit age thresholds
• Hit 3-time All-Pro and Pro Bowl threshold

Major Metrical Weaknesses:
• Did not hit 5-time All-Pro threshold

Metrical Success Score: 4/5

Risk Aversive Grade Without Athletic Testing: 4/8

2016 NFL Draft Pre-Combine Metrical Profile: Josh Doctson

Name: Josh Doctson

Position: WR
College: TCU
Height/Weight: 6-3, 190
Age on Draft Day: 22.46

Age Metrics

Age Percentile: 71
80 Percentile or higher: No
54 Percentile or higher: Yes

Production Metrics

Market Share Yardage Percentile: 72.41
Josh Doctson
5-Time All-Pro 91 Percentile: No
3-Time All-Pro 80 Percentile: No
3-Time Pro Bowl 70 Percentile: Yes

Major Metrical Strengths:
• Hit bottom age threshold
• Hit 3-Time Pro Bowl production threshold

Major Metrical Weaknesses:
• Did not hit top age threshold
• Did not hit any of the multiple All-Pro production thresholds

Metrical Success Score: 2/5

Risk Aversive Grade Without Athletic Testing: 2/8

2016 NFL Draft Pre-Combine Metrical Profile: Will Fuller

Name: Will Fuller

Position: WR
College: Notre Dame
Height/Weight: 5-11, 190
Age on Draft Day: 22.04

Age Metrics

Age Percentile: 82.44
80 Percentile or higher: Yes
54 Percentile or higher: Yes

Production Metrics

Market Share Yardage Percentile: 85.6
Will Fuller Production
5-Time All-Pro 91 Percentile: No
3-Time All-Pro 80 Percentile: Yes
3-Time Pro Bowl 70 Percentile: Yes

Major Metrical Strengths:
• Hit age thresholds
• Hit 3-Time All-Pro and Pro Bowl thresholds

Major Metrical Weaknesses:
• Did not hit 5-Time All-Pro thresholds

Metrical Success Score: 4/5

Risk Aversive Grade Without Athletic Testing: 4/8

2016 NFL Draft Pre-Combine Metrical Profile: Sterling Shepard

Name: Sterling Shepard

Position: WR
College: Oklahoma
Height/Weight: 5-10, 190
Age on Draft Day: 1994?

Age Metrics

Age Percentile: 74 at worst
80 Percentile or higher: No
54 Percentile or higher: Yes

Production Metrics

Market Share Yardage Percentile: 92.46
Sterling Shepard Metric Profile
5-Time All-Pro 91 Percentile: Yes
3-Time All-Pro 80 Percentile: Yes
3-Time Pro Bowl 70 Percentile: Yes

Major Metrical Strengths:
• Hit all of the production thresholds

Major Metrical Weaknesses:
• Age unknown, but if born in 1994 he at worst didn’t hit the youngest age threshold

Metrical Success Score: 4/5

Risk Aversive Grade Without Athletic Testing: 4/8

2016 NFL Draft Pre-Combine Metrical Profile: LaQuon Treadwell

Name: LaQuon Treadwell

Position: WR
College: Ole Miss
Height/Weight: 6-3, 215
Age on Draft Day: 20.88

Age Metrics

Age Percentile: 98.41
80 Percentile or higher: Yes
54 Percentile or higher: Yes

Production Metrics

Market Share Yardage Percentile: 68.65
LaQuon Treadwell production
5-Time All-Pro 91 Percentile: No
3-Time All-Pro 80 Percentile: No
3-Time Pro Bowl 70 Percentile: No

Major Metrical Strengths:
• Hit age thresholds

Major Metrical Weaknesses:
• Did not hit any of the production thresholds

Metrical Success Score: 2/5

Risk Aversive Grade Without Athletic Testing: 2/8

2016 NFL Draft Metrical Profile: Damontae Kazee

Name: Damontae Kazee

Position: CB
College: San Diego State
Height/Weight: 5-11, 180
Age on Draft Day: 22.91

Age Metrics

Age Percentile: 57.1
Hit All-Pro 91 Percentile: No
Hit Pro Bowl 78 Percentile: No

Production Metrics

Market Share Solo Tackle Percentile: 97.19
Market Share PD Percentile: 93.45
Damontae Kazee Production
Hit 63 Solo Tackle Percentile: Yes
Hit 66 PD Percentile: Yes

Major Metrical Strengths:
• Hit solo tackle and pass deflection thresholds

Major Metrical Weaknesses:
• Did not hit age thresholds

Metrical Success Score: 2/4

Metric Success Score Pending Combine: 2/7

2016 NFL Draft Metrical Profile: Frankie Williams

Name: Frankie Williams

Position: CB
College: Purdue
Height/Weight: 5-9, 189
Age on Draft Day: 23.1

Age Metrics

Age Percentile: 49.95
Hit All-Pro 91 Percentile: No
Hit Pro Bowl 78 Percentile: No

Production Metrics

Market Share Solo Tackle Percentile: 88.31
Market Share PD Percentile: 65.77
Frankie Williams Production
Hit 63 Solo Tackle Percentile: Yes
Hit 66 PD Percentile: No

Major Metrical Strengths:
• Hit solo tackle threshold

Major Metrical Weaknesses:
• Did not hit age or pass deflection threshold

Metrical Success Score: 1/4

Metric Success Score Pending Combine: 1/7

2016 NFL Draft Metrical Profile: D.J. White

Name: D.J. White

Position: CB
College: Georgia Tech
Height/Weight: 5-11, 190
Age on Draft Day: 22.64

Age Metrics

Age Percentile: 66.64
Hit All-Pro 91 Percentile: No
Hit Pro Bowl 78 Percentile: No

Production Metrics

Market Share Solo Tackle Percentile: 81.07
Market Share PD Percentile: 93.67
D.J. White production
Hit 63 Solo Tackle Percentile: Yes
Hit 66 PD Percentile: Yes

Major Metrical Strengths:
• Hit solo tackle and pass deflection thresholds

Major Metrical Weaknesses:
• Did not hit age thresholds

Metrical Success Score: 2/4

Metric Success Score Pending Combine: 2/7

2016 NFL Draft Metrical Profile: Eli Apple

Name: Eli Apple

Position: CB
College: Ohio State
Height/Weight: 6-2, 205
Age on Draft Day: 20.73

Age Metrics

Age Percentile: 99.35
Hit All-Pro 91 Percentile: Yes
Hit Pro Bowl 78 Percentile: Yes

Production Metrics

Market Share Solo Tackle Percentile: 18.34
Market Share PD Percentile: 47.42
Eli Apple production
Hit 63 Solo Tackle Percentile: No
Hit 66 PD Percentile: No

Major Metrical Strengths:
• Hit age thresholds

Major Metrical Weaknesses:
• Did not hit solo tackle or pass deflection thresholds

Metrical Success Score: 2/4

Metric Success Score Pending Combine: 2/7